Interesting historical trends that could change your bracket

· West Virginia is a hot pick to make the Final Four. Only one Big East Tournament champion has made the Final Four in the last five years (Georgetown 2007)

· No team with a freshman starting point guard has won the championship this decade. Sorry Kentucky…

· 13 is the new 12. The vaunted 12^th seed is always the popular spot to call for first-round upsets. In the last four years, 13 seeds have won four times in the first round, including three times in the last two years. Maryland, Vanderbilt, Wisconsin, and Purdue: you’ve been warned.

· Despite having some of the most talented teams in the country, West Virginia coach Bob Huggins is 23-17 lifetime in the NCAA Tournament. On average, his teams are knocked out in the second round.

· In three tournament appearances with Georgetown, coach John Thompson is 7-3, including the Final Four run in 2007.

· As head coach at Butler, Xavier and Ohio State, head coach Thad Matta has made the NCAA Tournament seven times. Only twice has he made it past the second round.

· Not-so-unknown fact: Siena has won a first round game two years running. Bad news for a reeling Purdue team.

· Gonzaga has been bounced from the big dance in the first round twice in the last three years.

· Maryland has not lost in the first round of the NCAA Tournament since 1997. Too bad for Houston.

· They have an easy road, but history is not on the Duke Blue Devils’ side. Coach K’s teams have not beaten a team seeded fifth or higher since 2001.

· Baylor, the third seed in the South region, was the 2009 NIT runner-up. The last time the defending NIT second-place team was in the field was 2008, when fifth-seeded Clemson was upset in the first round.

NCAA Tournament First Round: Who are the locks?

As poorly constructed as this year’s bracket is, there are far fewer first-round games I look at and say, “Without a doubt, team X will win this one.”

There are a number of teams seeded highly that just aren’t that much better than the rest of the field. Also, many of the lower seeded teams are either a) red-hot mid-majors, or b) teams with one star that can carry a team to an upset.

Even still, there are 16 games that I’m positive won’t drain my bank account. Here are the teams I guarantee will make the second round:

Midwest – (1) Kansas, (2) Ohio State, (3) Georgetown, (4) Maryland, (5) Michigan State.

All of these teams should feel comfortable getting through the first round. The Spartans face New Mexico State, who shocked Utah State in the WAC Tournament, the only way it would have made the field. The Aggies would barely have made the NIT if they hadn’t won the conference championship.

Maryland went one-and-done in the ACC Tournament, but prior to that game the Terrapins were playing their best basketball of the season. They beat Virginia Tech on the road and Duke at home in the final week of the regular season. Houston stunned Memphis and UTEP in the Conference USA tournament, but neither of those teams are anywhere near the Terp’s level.

West – (1) Syracuse, (2) Kansas State, (3) Pittsburgh, (5) Butler, (7) BYU

I love BYU. I think the Cougars were the most tournament-ready team in a ridiculously underappreciated Mountain West Conference. Jimmer Fridette looks to me like the Stephen Curry of the 2010 Tournament. He lights teams up from behind the arc, shooting 45 percent. They play a Florida team that struggled against the better teams it faced, and isn’t known for its perimeter defense.

It’s not crazy to think Butler could have trouble with Conference USA regular season champion UTEP, but the Bulldogs are prepared to make a deep run in this tournament. Brad Stevens has put this team through a grinding non-conference schedule, and he has an experienced bunch that pointed to this season and next as potential Final Four years.

I’m not in love with Pittsburg, but Oakland won’t take down the Panthers. This could be a game that is close at halftime. Oakland may even have a lead, grabbing the attention of the country, before Pitt closes the game out in convincing fashion.

East – (1) Kentucky, (2) West Virginia

This is the bracket where we’ll see the most first-round upsets. Both of these teams are safe, no doubt. Enough said. More on what should be the craziest region later.

South – (1) Duke, (2) Villanova, (3) Baylor, (13) Siena

You read correctly, Siena is a lock to move on to the second round, and anyone who watched the debacle that was Purdue’s loss to Minnesota on Saturday knows why. The Boilermakers are a shell of their former selves after Robbie Hummel was lost for the season to a torn ACL. Here are Purdue’s wins after losing Hummel: Indiana, at Penn State, and Northwestern, three bottom-feeders. Here are its two losses: Michigan State and Minnesota. Any team that has guards who can dribble with both hands can beat Purdue.

Three point play: give me five minutes to rant, please.

I’m calling for a citizen’s arrest, because the Selection Committee for the NCAA Tournament just robbed everyone. There might be more than three points below, but I’m going to try to fit all my frustration into just that many phases. We’ll see how it goes…

1. Duke as the third number one, and its cupcake region.

The only thing I said after looking at the South Region was “are you kidding me?”

Not only did Duke ascend to the third spot in the god forsaken S-Curve ahead of Syracuse, but the Devils’ region is easy peasy. Villanova, which has lost five of its last seven games, is the second seed, with an impressively unimpressive Baylor team seeded third, and a Robbie Hummel-less Purdue fourth.

How Duke is ranked third and Villanova earned a two seed is anyone’s guess. The committee valued Duke’s late-season run to the ACC Championship (which consisted of wins over Virginia, Miami, and Georgia Tech – all seeded seventh or worse in the ACC), and used that to give them the bump to third.

However, the Wildcats have fallen from grace over the last three weeks, and in no way resemble one of the eight best teams in the country. They will face either Richmond or Saint Mary’s in the second round, and I’ll go ahead and say I smell an upset.

2. Kansas and its murderer’s row of a championship path

Poor Bill Self. He finally has a team that is unquestionably the best in the country, and he gets jipped by the selection committee by placing Ohio State and Georgetown in the same bracket. Both of those two teams could arguably be one seed line higher than they are. The Buckeyes won the Big Ten championship game by thirty points and got placed as the fourth-best two seed?

Not only that, but Maryland, the second place team in the ACC, is the fourth seed. Ignore the Terps’ early exit in Greensboro, they are dangerous in a Sweet Sixteen game. That’s if they get there. Michigan State, which struggled without injured point guard Kalin Lucas mid-season, but are at full strength now, are the fifth seed.

Now get this: the six and seven seeds are Tennessee and Oklahoma State – the only two teams to beat the Jayhawks this season. How’s that for poetic injustice? Kansas is far and away the most championship-caliber team in the field, but if they make it out of that hell-hole of a region, it will be miraculous if they have anything left in the tank.

3. Florida and Minnesota in the field, Illinois and Virginia Tech out

If the committee sat down and laid out why the Gators and Gophers made the field, it would make sense, it really would. But when you compare them to the Illini and Hokies, it’s harder to make a case.

The biggest beef I have is with Minnesota over Illinois. “But Minnesota made the championship game?” you ask? They murdered a Purdue team without its star player, Robbie Hummel, and already played only six players before his injury. The Gophers then turned around to be pasted by 30 points against Ohio State.

How did the Buckeyes get to the championship game in the first place? By beating Illinois. In double overtime. After overcoming a double-digit second half deficit. Seriously, do the people making this bracket even watch the games, or just use a bunch of fancy calculations on sheets of paper.

Virginia Tech and Florida were in similar positions. Neither team did much to wow the committee, but both had solid seasons and were deservedly on the cusp of making or missing the big dance. However, the Gators went 9-7 in an unimpressive SEC, while also posting awful losses to South Alabama and Georgia.

Yes, the Hokies played a weak nonconference schedule, but they didn’t lose to any bad teams. Neither the Hokies nor the Gators had any wins over great teams that would separate one from the other. With Florida’s losses being worse, it just made a little more sense to include the Hokies.

There, I managed to stick to three. There is so much more about this bracket that just puts me to shame, but I will have to shove my bitterness to the backburner, suck it up and enjoy another year of March Madness. Plenty more bracket breakdown to come this week, keep checking back.

First ever video post!

The ULTIMATE NCAA Tournament - Team of the Decade

In spirit of the beginning of March Madness, I have gathered and ranked the 64 best teams from the past 10 NCAA Tournaments, and arranged them in a single elimination format to decide the champion of the decade. 

The first three rounds will be decided by myself, but the Elite 8, Final 4, and Championship game winners will be determined by you!

Here's what the brackets look like...

East Regional

(1) North Carolina 2009 vs. (16) Davidson 2008

(8) Florida 2000 vs. (9) Michigan State 2001

(4) Maryland 2001 vs. (13) Kentucky 2005

(5) Ohio State 2007 vs. (12) Duke 2002

(3) Maryland 2002 vs. (14) Duke 2005

(6) Marquette 2003 vs. (11) St. Joseph's 2004

(2) Syracuse 2003 vs. (15) Illinois 2001

(7) Villanova 2009 vs. (10) Pittsburgh 2009

Midwest Regional

(1) North Carolina 2005 vs. (16) Villanova 2006

(8) Connecticut 2009 vs. (9) Arizona 2001

(4) Kansas 2003 vs. (13) Arizona 2003

(5) Michigan State 2009 vs. (12) West Virginia 2005

(3) Kansas 2008 vs. (14) Memphis 2007

(6) Kansas 2002 vs. (11) Indiana 2002

(2) Florida 2007 vs. (15) Gonzaga 2006

(7) LSU 2006 vs. (10) Arizona 2000

South Regional

(1) Duke 2001 vs. (16) George Mason 2006

(8) Texas 2003 vs. (9) Michigan State 2005

(4) Memphis 2008 vs. (13) Louisville 2008

(5) Duke 2000 vs. (12) UNC 2007

(3) Duke 2004 vs. (14) Georgia Tech 2004

(6) Georgetown 2007 vs. (11) Kentucky 2003

(2) Michigan State 2000 vs. (15) Oklahoma 2002

(7) North Carolina 2008 vs. (10) Oklahoma State 2000

West Regional

(1) Connecticut 2004 vs. (16) Oklahoma State 2005

(8) Oklahoma State 2004 vs. (9) UCLA 2007

(4) UCLA 2006 vs. (13) Stanford 2000

(5) Iowa State 2000 vs. (12) Oregon 2002

(3) Illinois 2005 vs. (14) Memphis 2006

(6) UCLA 2008 vs. (11) Stanford 2001

(2) Florida 2006 vs. (15) Oregon 2007

(7) Arizona 2005 vs. (10) Kansas 2007

Three-point play: February 10, 2010

1. The Big Ten could put five teams in the Sweet Sixteen

A little more than a week ago, the Big Ten Conference appeared to be a race for second place. Michigan State was unbeaten in conference play and the class of the league. Fast-forward to today, and the Spartans are in the midst of a three-game losing streak and a tie for first place in the conference.

Illinois (17-8, 9-3) is surging, after beating the Spartans over the weekend then Wisconsin on the road Tuesday night. Purdue and Ohio State (8-3 in the Big 10) are both a half game behind the Illini and Spartans for the league’s best record. Wisconsin, at 8-4, is in fifth place but only a game behind the leaders.

Every one of those five teams has played a quality out of conference schedule and proven they can win on the nation’s biggest stage. Of those five teams, all are likely to be top five seeds in the NCAA Tournament.

2. The Big East could put four teams in the Elite 8

While not as deep as it was last year, the Big East has four of the nation’s best teams this season, and they are all playing like it right now. Georgetown has recovered from earlier struggles and sit in fourth place. This past Saturday, they were most impressive in beating conference leader Villanova at home.

Despite the loss by the Wildcats, they still look very strong and are easily the deepest team Jay Wright has had with the program. Scottie Reynolds has developed into a real leader for this team, rather than just the most talented player.

Syracuse is also extremely dangerous. They are tied atop the standings with Villanova at 10-1. The biggest concern for the Orange involving the tournament is inexperience at point guard. Brandon Triche has surprised everyone with his steady play as a freshman (9.5 ppg, 3.1 apg,), but history tells us it’s near impossible to win a championship with a rookie at that position.

The Orange also shoot 65% from the foul line as a team…not the most comforting of statistics for Syracuse fans. Still, it’s hard to argue that at 23-1, the Orange are not one of the best three or four teams in America.

West Virginia will also make a strong push in March. The Mountaineers are one of the more lengthy teams in the country, although they lack physicality inside. De’Sean Butler, Kevin Jones, and Devin Ebanks are all stars on the wing, and fit in perfectly with Coach Bob Huggins’ trapping defensive schemes. West Virginia traditionally plays very well during the postseason, and this is the most talented team the program has had in years.

3. Cinderella Alert: Siena, Butler, Northern Iowa

The Siena Saints, who knocked off Ohio State in the first round of last year’s NCAA Tournament, are riding high again this season. The Saints are 21-4 and 14-0 on the season. In the non-conference schedule, they faced both Georgia Tech and Temple on the road. Those types of games will prepare them well for the tournament.

When they make the big dance, you’ll be sure to hear about the Saints’ reserve player, Just-in’love Smith. He’s only played in four games, but that’s too cool of a name to keep off the air.

They’ll be known as a Cinderella, but if Northern Iowa makes it deep into March, it would not be that much of a surprise. The Panthers are 12-1 and in first place in the Missouri Valley Conference, which has produced several bracket busters this decade.

The Panthers are ranked no. 18 in the AP poll, so they have been recognized for their strong play thus far. They beat Boston College earlier this season on a neutral court, and they should easily earn an at-large bid should they falter in the conference tournament.

Butler also falls under a similar category as Northern Iowa. The Bulldogs were ranked in the top 20 of every preseason poll you could get your hands on. Now ranked 15^th in the country, Brad Stevens’ team has recovered from a few disappointing early-season losses to be 21-4 and 14-0 in the Horizon League. Their best win so far this season came against Ohio State in December, but the Buckeyes were without Evan Turner.

All three of these programs hail from little-known conferences, but they have been on cruise control over the past month and a half and could make serious noise during March Madness.