Swing Picks – West Region

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My ulcers haven’t gone anywhere yet. Fackkkkkk…

(4) Vanderbilt vs. (13) Murray State

Under coach Kevin Stallings, the Commodores (24-8) have been consistently good; never have they been great.

Vanderbilt enters the game as losers in two of its last three games. Both losses were against non-tournament teams.

The Commodores are extremely deep. Nine players average more than 12 minutes per game, while only one averages more than 30. A.J. Ogilvy is the most recognizable player on the team. The Australian center was a breakout freshman in 2008, but has not really improved much since then. He has good shooting touch but is not very physical in the paint.

The Racers (30-4) are also extremely deep. All five starters average double-digit scoring. As a team, the Racers score at a rapid pace (77 points per game), which leads me to believe they are more than ready for an up-and-down game with a slower Vanderbilt team.

The Commodores play bad defense at times, quite frankly. They allow nearly 70 points per game on average.

However, Murray State doesn’t have that signature win I’d like to see from the regular season that proves it can play with the big boys.

The Racers opened the season with a five-point loss to California, but other than that they never played anyone else that is still playing basketball.

Pick – Murray State -1

(5) Butler vs. (12) UTEP

I really, really like Butler. The Bulldogs had no fear in scheduling a brutal slate in the non-conference, and claimed wins over Ohio State and Xavier in the process. All five starters from 2008-09 returned this season, and they ran the table in the Horizon league, going 18-0 and also took home the conference tournament.

Gordon Hayward (15.4 ppg), Shelvin Mack (13.9 ppg) and Matt Howard (12.3 ppg) form one of the best trio of players this side of Durham.

The selection committee did them no favors (surprise, surprise) by matching them up with Conference USA regular season champion UTEP in the first round.

The Miners (26-6) dominated its somewhat unusually pedestrian conference, but lost to Houston in the league championship in surprising fashion.

If UTEP is able to pull off the upset, it will be because of guard Randy Culpeper. Culpeper scores 18 points per game, and has scored more than 30 points three times. In a win against East Carolina in February, Culpeper lit up the Pirates for 45 points.

The Miners just haven’t beaten anyone very impressive. Their record against teams in the NCAA Tournament is 3-4. Those wins were against a 16-seed, 12-seed and a 13-seed. It’s hard to say they can hang with Butler, but they just might.

Pick – Butler -3.5

(6) Xavier vs. (11) Minnesota

The Musketeers (24-8) finished tied for first place in the rugged Atlantic 10, a noteworthy accomplishment. That fact alone leads me to think they will succeed in the big dance. However, their record against tournament teams is subpar. In nine games against teams that made the field of 65, the Musketeers were 2-7.

Minnesota (21-13) turned a Big Ten Championship game run into an at-large bid, after nobody thought they had a chance to make the tournament a week and a half ago. In the conference tournament, they beat Purdue and Michigan State, who are four and five seeds respectively in the NCAA Tournament.

The Golden Gophers have proved they can beat the nation’s elite. They beat Ohio State, Wisconsin, and Illinois during the regular season. They have a solid backcourt with three good guards in Lawrence Westbrook, Blake Hoffarber and Devoe Joseph. Their balanced lineup allows them to play at a variety of speeds.

The Musketeers should win this game – they have the more talented team at least – but Minnesota has played better in games against better competition. This will be one of the closest games in the first round.

Pick – Xavier -1

Three point play: give me five minutes to rant, please.

I’m calling for a citizen’s arrest, because the Selection Committee for the NCAA Tournament just robbed everyone. There might be more than three points below, but I’m going to try to fit all my frustration into just that many phases. We’ll see how it goes…

1. Duke as the third number one, and its cupcake region.

The only thing I said after looking at the South Region was “are you kidding me?”

Not only did Duke ascend to the third spot in the god forsaken S-Curve ahead of Syracuse, but the Devils’ region is easy peasy. Villanova, which has lost five of its last seven games, is the second seed, with an impressively unimpressive Baylor team seeded third, and a Robbie Hummel-less Purdue fourth.

How Duke is ranked third and Villanova earned a two seed is anyone’s guess. The committee valued Duke’s late-season run to the ACC Championship (which consisted of wins over Virginia, Miami, and Georgia Tech – all seeded seventh or worse in the ACC), and used that to give them the bump to third.

However, the Wildcats have fallen from grace over the last three weeks, and in no way resemble one of the eight best teams in the country. They will face either Richmond or Saint Mary’s in the second round, and I’ll go ahead and say I smell an upset.

2. Kansas and its murderer’s row of a championship path

Poor Bill Self. He finally has a team that is unquestionably the best in the country, and he gets jipped by the selection committee by placing Ohio State and Georgetown in the same bracket. Both of those two teams could arguably be one seed line higher than they are. The Buckeyes won the Big Ten championship game by thirty points and got placed as the fourth-best two seed?

Not only that, but Maryland, the second place team in the ACC, is the fourth seed. Ignore the Terps’ early exit in Greensboro, they are dangerous in a Sweet Sixteen game. That’s if they get there. Michigan State, which struggled without injured point guard Kalin Lucas mid-season, but are at full strength now, are the fifth seed.

Now get this: the six and seven seeds are Tennessee and Oklahoma State – the only two teams to beat the Jayhawks this season. How’s that for poetic injustice? Kansas is far and away the most championship-caliber team in the field, but if they make it out of that hell-hole of a region, it will be miraculous if they have anything left in the tank.

3. Florida and Minnesota in the field, Illinois and Virginia Tech out

If the committee sat down and laid out why the Gators and Gophers made the field, it would make sense, it really would. But when you compare them to the Illini and Hokies, it’s harder to make a case.

The biggest beef I have is with Minnesota over Illinois. “But Minnesota made the championship game?” you ask? They murdered a Purdue team without its star player, Robbie Hummel, and already played only six players before his injury. The Gophers then turned around to be pasted by 30 points against Ohio State.

How did the Buckeyes get to the championship game in the first place? By beating Illinois. In double overtime. After overcoming a double-digit second half deficit. Seriously, do the people making this bracket even watch the games, or just use a bunch of fancy calculations on sheets of paper.

Virginia Tech and Florida were in similar positions. Neither team did much to wow the committee, but both had solid seasons and were deservedly on the cusp of making or missing the big dance. However, the Gators went 9-7 in an unimpressive SEC, while also posting awful losses to South Alabama and Georgia.

Yes, the Hokies played a weak nonconference schedule, but they didn’t lose to any bad teams. Neither the Hokies nor the Gators had any wins over great teams that would separate one from the other. With Florida’s losses being worse, it just made a little more sense to include the Hokies.

There, I managed to stick to three. There is so much more about this bracket that just puts me to shame, but I will have to shove my bitterness to the backburner, suck it up and enjoy another year of March Madness. Plenty more bracket breakdown to come this week, keep checking back.