NCAA Tournament First Round: Who are the locks?

As poorly constructed as this year’s bracket is, there are far fewer first-round games I look at and say, “Without a doubt, team X will win this one.”

There are a number of teams seeded highly that just aren’t that much better than the rest of the field. Also, many of the lower seeded teams are either a) red-hot mid-majors, or b) teams with one star that can carry a team to an upset.

Even still, there are 16 games that I’m positive won’t drain my bank account. Here are the teams I guarantee will make the second round:

Midwest – (1) Kansas, (2) Ohio State, (3) Georgetown, (4) Maryland, (5) Michigan State.

All of these teams should feel comfortable getting through the first round. The Spartans face New Mexico State, who shocked Utah State in the WAC Tournament, the only way it would have made the field. The Aggies would barely have made the NIT if they hadn’t won the conference championship.

Maryland went one-and-done in the ACC Tournament, but prior to that game the Terrapins were playing their best basketball of the season. They beat Virginia Tech on the road and Duke at home in the final week of the regular season. Houston stunned Memphis and UTEP in the Conference USA tournament, but neither of those teams are anywhere near the Terp’s level.

West – (1) Syracuse, (2) Kansas State, (3) Pittsburgh, (5) Butler, (7) BYU

I love BYU. I think the Cougars were the most tournament-ready team in a ridiculously underappreciated Mountain West Conference. Jimmer Fridette looks to me like the Stephen Curry of the 2010 Tournament. He lights teams up from behind the arc, shooting 45 percent. They play a Florida team that struggled against the better teams it faced, and isn’t known for its perimeter defense.

It’s not crazy to think Butler could have trouble with Conference USA regular season champion UTEP, but the Bulldogs are prepared to make a deep run in this tournament. Brad Stevens has put this team through a grinding non-conference schedule, and he has an experienced bunch that pointed to this season and next as potential Final Four years.

I’m not in love with Pittsburg, but Oakland won’t take down the Panthers. This could be a game that is close at halftime. Oakland may even have a lead, grabbing the attention of the country, before Pitt closes the game out in convincing fashion.

East – (1) Kentucky, (2) West Virginia

This is the bracket where we’ll see the most first-round upsets. Both of these teams are safe, no doubt. Enough said. More on what should be the craziest region later.

South – (1) Duke, (2) Villanova, (3) Baylor, (13) Siena

You read correctly, Siena is a lock to move on to the second round, and anyone who watched the debacle that was Purdue’s loss to Minnesota on Saturday knows why. The Boilermakers are a shell of their former selves after Robbie Hummel was lost for the season to a torn ACL. Here are Purdue’s wins after losing Hummel: Indiana, at Penn State, and Northwestern, three bottom-feeders. Here are its two losses: Michigan State and Minnesota. Any team that has guards who can dribble with both hands can beat Purdue.

Three point play: give me five minutes to rant, please.

I’m calling for a citizen’s arrest, because the Selection Committee for the NCAA Tournament just robbed everyone. There might be more than three points below, but I’m going to try to fit all my frustration into just that many phases. We’ll see how it goes…

1. Duke as the third number one, and its cupcake region.

The only thing I said after looking at the South Region was “are you kidding me?”

Not only did Duke ascend to the third spot in the god forsaken S-Curve ahead of Syracuse, but the Devils’ region is easy peasy. Villanova, which has lost five of its last seven games, is the second seed, with an impressively unimpressive Baylor team seeded third, and a Robbie Hummel-less Purdue fourth.

How Duke is ranked third and Villanova earned a two seed is anyone’s guess. The committee valued Duke’s late-season run to the ACC Championship (which consisted of wins over Virginia, Miami, and Georgia Tech – all seeded seventh or worse in the ACC), and used that to give them the bump to third.

However, the Wildcats have fallen from grace over the last three weeks, and in no way resemble one of the eight best teams in the country. They will face either Richmond or Saint Mary’s in the second round, and I’ll go ahead and say I smell an upset.

2. Kansas and its murderer’s row of a championship path

Poor Bill Self. He finally has a team that is unquestionably the best in the country, and he gets jipped by the selection committee by placing Ohio State and Georgetown in the same bracket. Both of those two teams could arguably be one seed line higher than they are. The Buckeyes won the Big Ten championship game by thirty points and got placed as the fourth-best two seed?

Not only that, but Maryland, the second place team in the ACC, is the fourth seed. Ignore the Terps’ early exit in Greensboro, they are dangerous in a Sweet Sixteen game. That’s if they get there. Michigan State, which struggled without injured point guard Kalin Lucas mid-season, but are at full strength now, are the fifth seed.

Now get this: the six and seven seeds are Tennessee and Oklahoma State – the only two teams to beat the Jayhawks this season. How’s that for poetic injustice? Kansas is far and away the most championship-caliber team in the field, but if they make it out of that hell-hole of a region, it will be miraculous if they have anything left in the tank.

3. Florida and Minnesota in the field, Illinois and Virginia Tech out

If the committee sat down and laid out why the Gators and Gophers made the field, it would make sense, it really would. But when you compare them to the Illini and Hokies, it’s harder to make a case.

The biggest beef I have is with Minnesota over Illinois. “But Minnesota made the championship game?” you ask? They murdered a Purdue team without its star player, Robbie Hummel, and already played only six players before his injury. The Gophers then turned around to be pasted by 30 points against Ohio State.

How did the Buckeyes get to the championship game in the first place? By beating Illinois. In double overtime. After overcoming a double-digit second half deficit. Seriously, do the people making this bracket even watch the games, or just use a bunch of fancy calculations on sheets of paper.

Virginia Tech and Florida were in similar positions. Neither team did much to wow the committee, but both had solid seasons and were deservedly on the cusp of making or missing the big dance. However, the Gators went 9-7 in an unimpressive SEC, while also posting awful losses to South Alabama and Georgia.

Yes, the Hokies played a weak nonconference schedule, but they didn’t lose to any bad teams. Neither the Hokies nor the Gators had any wins over great teams that would separate one from the other. With Florida’s losses being worse, it just made a little more sense to include the Hokies.

There, I managed to stick to three. There is so much more about this bracket that just puts me to shame, but I will have to shove my bitterness to the backburner, suck it up and enjoy another year of March Madness. Plenty more bracket breakdown to come this week, keep checking back.

Three-point play: February 26, 2010

 1.  Why Kansas is the odds-on favorite to win it all

It has been more than a decade since college basketball crowned a champion that did not have an experienced point guard. Every team in the last ten years had one. Ty Lawson, Mario Chalmers, Taurean Green, Raymond Felton, Ben Gordon, Keith Duany, Steve Blake, Jason Williams, Mateen Cleaves.

You can bet on it every year, the last team standing will have a quality veteran point guard leading his team. That’s what separates the Kansas Jayhawks from the rest of the top teams in the country this season.

Sherron Collins has been magnificent in 2009-10, leading the Jayhawks in scoring, assists, and free throw percentage. On a supremely talented team with more depth than anyone else in America, Collins has shined above the rest.

The rest of the favorites to make the Final Four all have talented point guards, but they are all inexperienced. John Wall at Kentucky is at the forefront of this argument, but also Brandon Triche at Syracuse, and Truck Bryant at West Virginia.

Some of the top teams with veteran point guards are Duke (Jon Scheyer) – see previous posts for why they won’t make it all the way – Villanova (Scottie Reynolds/Corey Fisher), and Kansas State (Jacob Pullen).

None of those teams are as talented as the Jayhawks are across the board, which is why I’m starting to lean towards Kansas as my early championship pick.

2.    Purdue is royally screwed

When Robbie Hummel went tumbling to the floor in the first half Purdue’s win over Minnesota Wednesday night, so did any hope of a Final Four run for the Boilermakers.

All five of Purdue’s starters average at least 27 minutes per game.

The bench player with the most playing time is Kelsey Barlow with 15.9 minutes per game.

The Boilermakers have no depth whatsoever, and they surely couldn’t afford to lose its best player for the season. Of course, no team wants to lose its star, but when head coach Matt Painter clearly has no solid options to go to off the bench, Purdue is in trouble.

With Hummel in the lineup, the Boilermakers had a good shot at making a run to the Elite Eight, or even the Final Four. Without him, I’ll be shocked if they make it to the Sweet 16.

3.    Game to watch Saturday: (8) Villanova at (4) Syracuse

The Orange need a win Saturday and one more to clinch an outright Big East championship. As if they needed any more motivation in a top-ten conference battle at home in prime time on national television.

Syracuse has won two straight games after its surprising loss to Louisville on Valentine’s Day.

Villanova enters the game in a much bigger rut than the Orange. After starting the Big East season 9-0, the Wildcats are 3-3 since, including consecutive losses last week to Connecticut and at Pittsburgh.

If the ‘Cuse pull off this win tomorrow night, it would be their sixth against a team ranked in the top 15 at the time of the game this season.

This is a pivotal game for Villanova, because its final two games are not easy. The Wildcats travel to Cincinnati and host West Virginia next week.

This could also be one final bout for conference player of the year honors. There are several players in the Big East vying for the honor, but the two favorites have to be Wesley Johnson from Syracuse and Scottie Reynolds at ‘Nova. Johnson averages 16 points and nine rebounds this season to lead the Orange, while Reynolds has put an outstanding cap on an illustrious career, scoring 19 points per game for the Wildcats.

If the Orange win, it could go a long way in making their case for a number one seed in the NCAA Tournament. If the Wildcats win, it will ease the pain of their recent struggles, and give them some momentum heading into the difficult final week of their regular season.