Interesting historical trends that could change your bracket

· West Virginia is a hot pick to make the Final Four. Only one Big East Tournament champion has made the Final Four in the last five years (Georgetown 2007)

· No team with a freshman starting point guard has won the championship this decade. Sorry Kentucky…

· 13 is the new 12. The vaunted 12^th seed is always the popular spot to call for first-round upsets. In the last four years, 13 seeds have won four times in the first round, including three times in the last two years. Maryland, Vanderbilt, Wisconsin, and Purdue: you’ve been warned.

· Despite having some of the most talented teams in the country, West Virginia coach Bob Huggins is 23-17 lifetime in the NCAA Tournament. On average, his teams are knocked out in the second round.

· In three tournament appearances with Georgetown, coach John Thompson is 7-3, including the Final Four run in 2007.

· As head coach at Butler, Xavier and Ohio State, head coach Thad Matta has made the NCAA Tournament seven times. Only twice has he made it past the second round.

· Not-so-unknown fact: Siena has won a first round game two years running. Bad news for a reeling Purdue team.

· Gonzaga has been bounced from the big dance in the first round twice in the last three years.

· Maryland has not lost in the first round of the NCAA Tournament since 1997. Too bad for Houston.

· They have an easy road, but history is not on the Duke Blue Devils’ side. Coach K’s teams have not beaten a team seeded fifth or higher since 2001.

· Baylor, the third seed in the South region, was the 2009 NIT runner-up. The last time the defending NIT second-place team was in the field was 2008, when fifth-seeded Clemson was upset in the first round.

NCAA Tournament First Round: Who are the locks?

As poorly constructed as this year’s bracket is, there are far fewer first-round games I look at and say, “Without a doubt, team X will win this one.”

There are a number of teams seeded highly that just aren’t that much better than the rest of the field. Also, many of the lower seeded teams are either a) red-hot mid-majors, or b) teams with one star that can carry a team to an upset.

Even still, there are 16 games that I’m positive won’t drain my bank account. Here are the teams I guarantee will make the second round:

Midwest – (1) Kansas, (2) Ohio State, (3) Georgetown, (4) Maryland, (5) Michigan State.

All of these teams should feel comfortable getting through the first round. The Spartans face New Mexico State, who shocked Utah State in the WAC Tournament, the only way it would have made the field. The Aggies would barely have made the NIT if they hadn’t won the conference championship.

Maryland went one-and-done in the ACC Tournament, but prior to that game the Terrapins were playing their best basketball of the season. They beat Virginia Tech on the road and Duke at home in the final week of the regular season. Houston stunned Memphis and UTEP in the Conference USA tournament, but neither of those teams are anywhere near the Terp’s level.

West – (1) Syracuse, (2) Kansas State, (3) Pittsburgh, (5) Butler, (7) BYU

I love BYU. I think the Cougars were the most tournament-ready team in a ridiculously underappreciated Mountain West Conference. Jimmer Fridette looks to me like the Stephen Curry of the 2010 Tournament. He lights teams up from behind the arc, shooting 45 percent. They play a Florida team that struggled against the better teams it faced, and isn’t known for its perimeter defense.

It’s not crazy to think Butler could have trouble with Conference USA regular season champion UTEP, but the Bulldogs are prepared to make a deep run in this tournament. Brad Stevens has put this team through a grinding non-conference schedule, and he has an experienced bunch that pointed to this season and next as potential Final Four years.

I’m not in love with Pittsburg, but Oakland won’t take down the Panthers. This could be a game that is close at halftime. Oakland may even have a lead, grabbing the attention of the country, before Pitt closes the game out in convincing fashion.

East – (1) Kentucky, (2) West Virginia

This is the bracket where we’ll see the most first-round upsets. Both of these teams are safe, no doubt. Enough said. More on what should be the craziest region later.

South – (1) Duke, (2) Villanova, (3) Baylor, (13) Siena

You read correctly, Siena is a lock to move on to the second round, and anyone who watched the debacle that was Purdue’s loss to Minnesota on Saturday knows why. The Boilermakers are a shell of their former selves after Robbie Hummel was lost for the season to a torn ACL. Here are Purdue’s wins after losing Hummel: Indiana, at Penn State, and Northwestern, three bottom-feeders. Here are its two losses: Michigan State and Minnesota. Any team that has guards who can dribble with both hands can beat Purdue.

On the Docket - Gator Bowl: West Virginia (9-3) vs. Florida State (6-6)

Synopsis:

Who’d have thought the center of bowl controversy could originate outside the BCS? This season, the very scenario has occurred. Florida State is playing in the Jacksonville, Fla., bowl game to honor the wishes of the retiring coach Bobby Bowden. However, the Seminoles hardly earned a spot in such a prestigious bowl game, and have consequentially relegated more deserving teams to inferior bowls.

Player to watch: E.J. Manuel stepped in late in the season to replace the injured Christian Ponder at quarterback for FSU. The redshirt freshman acted his age in his three starts, throwing two touchdowns, but six interceptions. The Seminole offense was unstoppable prior to the loss of Ponder, now they are wincing through every drive, praying that it does not end in a turnover.

Who has the edge?

West Virginia. It’s clear the Seminoles don’t belong in this game. If Ponder was healthy, the Seminoles had a shot. The FSU defense can’t keep a blind institution from finding the end zone. Noel Devine, the lightning-quick Mountaineer running back, should have a career day.

Prediction:

West Virginia 38

Florida State 17

Best week for college football fans is upon us

Thanksgiving is here, which only means one thing. Some finger-lickin’, lip-smackin’ good football.

I’ve been around this world for 19 years, spending about 16 of them as a die-hard college football fan, and no weekend out of the year is better than that of Thanksgiving.

Thanksgiving evenings used to be filled with Grandma’s scrumptious dinner, followed by the Egg Bowl, Ole Miss versus Mississippi State. The next day, I could sleep until 11:30ish when I would wake up, grab some pancakes, and enjoy the Lone Star Showdown, Texas versus Texas A & M.

This year’s slate has been shaken up a bit from recent tradition, but should still provide for an unbeatable day of indigestion recovery.

This year, Thankgsiving night concludes with the Longhorns and Aggies from College Station, which has not been friendly to Colt McCoy. In 2007, McCoy brought in 13^th-ranked Texas to Kyle Field only to fall 38-30 in Aggies’ coach Dennis Franchione’s finale.  

The Aggies also won 12-7 in 2006. Last year Texas shut down Stephen McGee in a 49-9 win, but much of the first half was very close. If the Aggies can rally around Jerrod Johnson and their occasionally explosive offense, they can give the Longhorns fits.

Black Friday will only bring more classic rivalry showdowns. The nightcap is the Backyard Brawl, West Virginia and Pittsburgh. The Mountaineers’ three losses have all come on the road, and Friday night’s game is in Morgantown. Noel Devine and Dion Lewis are two of the best running backs in the country.

Pittsburgh has a huge matchup with unbeaten Cincinnati looming the following week, but it’s hard to imagine it suffering from the classic look-ahead syndrome against its hated rivals.

Either way, the Mountaineers won’t let the Panthers invade their turf and get away easily.

One of my favorite rivalry games is Nebraska-Colorado. Every year, this game provides some prime-time entertainment. Whether it be Chris Brown scoring six touchdowns in 2001, or Ndamukong Suh returning an interception for a touchdown in 2008 to seal the win, this game is always a great one.

Dan Hawkins may very well be on his way out after a failed experiment as the Buffaloes’ head coach, and his players would love nothing more than to let Hawkins go out with a huge win over the Big 12 North division champions.

All of those games are going to make for a spectacular weekend, but the one game most likely to transform the college football landscape is Alabama at Auburn. The Crimson Tide are within one game of its second straight undefeated regular season and a matchup with top-ranked Florida in the conference championship game.

There have been several games this season where the Tide’s offense has not been at its best, and the Tigers can surely score points with anyone. Chris Todd and Ben Tate have combined to produce 27 touchdowns this season.

This is Greg McElroy’s first trip to Jordan-Hare Stadium for the Iron Bowl as a starter. In the state of Alabama, there is football season and then there is the Tide and Tigers matchup. This particular game is on a completely different level from any other, and the odds are McElroy might not handle that tremendous pressure.

Rivalry week is upon us, and the Thursday-Friday prelude to the weekend is fast approaching. The BCS bowls are right around the corner!. . .