ACC Tournament Quarterfinals Preview

Day one was a doozy, here's a look ahead to Friday's quarterfinal round.

#1 Duke vs.

#9 Virginia, 12:00 p.m.

Regular season results – Duke 67-49 at Virginia on Feb. 28

Team records – Duke 26-5 (13-3) Virginia 15-5 (6-11)

Projected starters –

Duke

G- Jon Scheyer (18.9 ppg, 40% 3pt, 89% FT)

G- Nolan Smith (17.6 ppg, 3.0 apg)

F- Kyle Singler (17.2 ppg, 6.8 rpg)

F- Lance Thomas (5.0 ppg, 5.0 rpg)

C- Brian Zoubek (5.4 ppg, 7.3 rpg)

Virginia (ACC Tournament stats)

G- Mustapha Farrakhan (10 points, 4 assists)

G- Sammy Zeglinski (21 points, 5-10 3pt)

G- Jeff Jones (14 points, 3-5 3pt)

F- Mike Scott (11 points, 13 rebounds)

C- Jerome Meyinsse (12 points, 4 rebounds)

Team statistical comparison –

DUKE	STAT	UVA
79.1	Points per game	66.0
38.9%	Three-point percentage	35.2%
39.2	Rebounds per game	34.0
27.1%	Opponents 3-point %	35.6

Overview –

This one really shouldn’t be very close. The number that jumps off the page with Duke is three-point shooting both offensively and defensively. Not only do the Blue Devils shoot 39 percent from behind the arc, but also they are the number one team in the country in three-point percentage on defense. Duke averages 23.4 points per game from threes, while its opponents average only 10.1.

Virginia already exceeded expectations by snapping a nine-game losing streak sans its leading scorer in round one. Sammy Zeglinski erupted against Boston College, shooting 50 percent from beyond the arc. Virginia is not a very strong outside shooting team typically, but would need a similar performance on Friday to even hang close.

Plain and simple, Duke has too much size for Virginia to handle. The Devils constantly throw large bodies out on the floor, and Virginia is not deep enough to hang around. Expect Nolan Smith and Kyle Singler to have huge games. It would not be surprising to see one or both creep towards the 30-point mark in this game.

Virginia’s best chance in this game is to force those two Devils into foul trouble, and shoot an even higher percentage from three-point range than it did Thursday.

Prediction – Duke 84, Virginia 69

#4 Virginia Tech vs.

#12 Miami, 2:30 p.m.

Regular season results –VT 81-66 at home on Jan. 13, Mia 82-75 at home on Jan. 31

Team records – VT 23-7 (10-6) Miami 19-12 (4-12)

Projected starters –

Virginia Tech

G- Malcolm Delaney (20.9 ppg, 4.2 apg, 3.1 t.o per game)

G- Dorenzo Hudson (14.4 ppg, 3.5 rpg)

F- Terrell Bell (6.0 ppg, 6.2 rpg)

F- Jeff Allen (12.1 ppg, 7.3 rpg, 2.2 spg)

C- Victor Davila (5.3 ppg, 4.3 rpg)

Miami (First round stats)

G-Durand Scott (6 points, 4 assists)

G-Malcolm Grant (9 points, 5 assists)

G- James Dews (15 points, 4 rebounds)

F- DeQuan Jones (14 points, 4 rebounds)

F- Reggie Johnson (22 points, 4 rebounds)

Team statistical comparison –

VA TECH	STAT	MIAMI
73.0	Points per game	72.1
72.5%	Free throw percentage	66.8%
42.6%	Field goal percentage	46.2%
13.8	Points off three-pointers	22.5

Overview –

There may never be as dominating of a victory by the last-place team in a conference tournament ever again like Miami’s 83-62 beatdown of Wake on Thursday. The Hurricanes exploited the Deacons’ weak outside shooting by playing a 2-3 zone much of the game.

Virginia Tech is in the same boat as Wake. The Hokies are one of the weakest three-point shooting teams in the country. In the first matchup between Tech and Miami, the Hokies torched the Hurricanes’ zone, shooting over 60 percent from the field in the first half.

If Seth Greenberg’s club is making outside shots, they are very tough to beat. Malcolm Delaney, Dorenzo Hudson, Terrell Bell and Jeff Allen are all capable of knocking down outside shots, but none do so on a very consistent basis.

Hudson is expected to play despite a foot injury that held him out of the Hokies’ season finale at Georgia Tech.

The X-factor in this game will be Malcolm Delaney, and how effective his jump shot will be. Against a zone, he is less likely to reach the foul line as often as he does (more than seven times per game). This game will be very close, but the Hokies know that a one-and-done in Greensboro just might keep them out of the big dance.

Prediction – Virginia Tech 72, Miami 69

#2 Maryland vs.

#7 Georgia Tech, 7:00 p.m.

Regular season results – Maryland 76-74 at home on Feb. 20

Team records – Maryland 23-7 (13-3) Georgia Tech 20-11 (8-9)

Projected starters –

Maryland

G- Greives Vasquez (19.6 ppg, 6.3 apg, 4.6 rpg)

G- Eric Hayes (11.0 ppg, 45.2% 3pt.)

F- Landon Milbourne (12.4 ppg, 4.9 rpg)

F- Sean Mosley (10.8 ppg, 5.3 rpg)

C- Jordan Williams (9.3 ppg, 8.3 rpg)

Georgia Tech (ACC Tourney stats)

G- Iman Shumpert (9 points, 4 rebounds, 4 assists)

G- De’Andre Bell (8 points, 5 rebounds)

G- Glen Rice, Jr. (8 points, 2-4 3pt.)

F- Derrick Favors (18 points, 9 rebounds)

F- Gani Lawal (12 points, 4 rebounds)

Team statistical comparison –

UMD	STAT	GA TECH
79.8	Points per game	74.7
72.1%	Free throw percentage	65.4%
11.8	Turnovers per game	16.2
71.0	Points allowed per game	71.7

Overview –

Maryland has one of the best teams nobody is talking about as we hit mid-March. Vasquez is the unquestionable leader and go-to guy for Gary Williams’ team, but the Terrapins are deceptively balanced. Eric Hayes is a dynamite outside shooter, and Jordan Williams has emerged as a viable threat in the low post.

Williams will have his hands full with Lawal and Favors, who carried the Jackets past North Carolina in round one. Milbourne and Mosley will have to match the physical play of Georgia Tech to allow Vasquez and Hayes to win the game for them.

The backcourt advantage leans heavily towards the Terrapins. Georgia Tech’s guards have been inconsistent all season. Glen Rice, Jr. is a 45-percent shooter from three-point range, and he will have to knock down shots to give Tech hope.

Favors was ultra-impressive against Carolina Thursday night, and there is no reason to think he won’t build on that as he makes his case as one of the country’s best players. If he comes through with a big game, Tech has a chance.

Prediction – Maryland 74, Georgia Tech 69

#3 Florida State vs.

#11 North Carolina State, 9:30 p.m.

Regular season results – NC St. 88-81 at FSU on Jan. 12

Team records – Florida State 22-8 (10-6) NC State 18-14 (6-11)

Projected starters –

Florida State

G- Michael Snaer (8.9 ppg, 1.3 apg, 2.4 t.o per game)

G- Deividas Dulkys (8.6 ppg, 40.1% 3pt)

G- Derwin Kitchen (8.3 ppg, 4.7 rpg)

F- Chris Singleton (10.4 ppg, 7.2 rpg)

C- Solomon Alabi (11.6 ppg, 6.1 rpg, 2.3 bpg)

NC State (ACC Tourney Stats)

G- Javier Gonzalez (2 points, 4 turnovers)

G- Julius Mays (4 points, 3 turnovers)

F- Dennis Horner (2 points, 4 rebounds)

F- C.J. Williams (8 points, 4-4 FT)

F- Tracy Smith (19 points, 8 rebounds)

Team statistical comparison –

FSU	STAT	NC STATE
69.0	Points per game	68.0
64.9%	Free throw percentage	68.7%
8.4	Steals per game	6.4
60.2	Points allowed per game	65.1

Overview –

In reality, the Wolfpack had no means winning their first-round game against Clemson. They defeated the Tigers 59-57 in a game where Clemson shot 10-of-18 from the foul line and 20-of-51 from the field. Many of the Tigers’ misses were open looks, as David Potter and Andre Young went a combined one-for-12 from the field.

Florida State doesn’t boast much better shooters than Clemson, which is a good sign for the ‘Pack. Sidney Lowe’s gang, which has a knack for winning games in the conference tournament year after year, relies heavily on big man Tracy Smith to lead the way. Smith was the only scorer in double figures for NC State Thursday night.

Florida State likes to play aggressive half-court man-to-man defense, and are one of the best in the country at doing so. The Wolfpack turned the ball over 19 times against Clemson, another anomalistic number considering the fact they won the game. As I’ve said before, State has the worst ball-handling club in the ACC, and it has to catch up to them at some point.

As you can see above, though, Florida State also struggles from the foul line. Freshman guard Michael Snaer was named to the conference’s all-rookie team this week despite an appalling 1:1.8 assist-to-turnover ratio.

Just as Miami was for Wake Forest, NC State is a tough matchup for the ‘Noles, who already lost to the Wolfpack at home in 2010. This could be one ugly game.

Prediction – Florida State 64, NC State 62

Sizing up Florida State -- Q & A with one of their own

The ACC Tournament starts just more than 36 hours. Not for Florida State though, whose 10-6 conference record earned them the third seed and first-round bye this weekend.

FSUncensored blogs for www.tomahawknation.com, and they kindly agreed to answer some questions concerning the Seminoles leading into the conference tournament.

Here are his remarks.

The Playbook -- Of Florida State’s 10 ACC wins, eight came against teams seeded seventh or lower in this week’s tournament. I think this might be the reason the ‘Noles have flown under the radar to this point. How can Florida State win this tournament?

FSUncensored -- Florida States' defense is the best in the nation, at least according to Ken Pomeroy. The defense is a given and has been consistent the entire year. However, that isn't what will get the Seminoles through this tournament. The defense will be the foundation for their success, but there are two other key factors that are necessary for the Seminoles' success. They have to limit their turnovers and they need to shoot the ball better. A tournament setting is not the place to making careless mistakes. Florida State is one of the worst teams in the nation when it comes to turnover percentage. Fortunately, their defense, led by the ACC Defensive Player of the Year, Chris Singleton has bailed the Seminoles out on many occasions. The Seminoles can't give up the easy points. Additionally, the Seminoles can't expect to shoot 38% from the floor and go very far in this tournament. The Seminoles are holding their opponents to 60 points per game. The Noles are only scoring 69 points per game and that average is inflated by some major blow outs in out-of-conference play. If the Seminoles shoot consistently from the floor, they will be hard to beat.

The Playbook -- FSU is 0-3 against Clemson and NC State this season. The ‘Noles will face one of those two teams in the quarterfinals. Which team would you rather play, and why?

FSUncensored-- Anyone who has been following the ACC this year knows that anything can happen on any night. One could argue that it would be better for the Noles to play NC State solely based on seeding principles. Why wouldn't you want to face the lower seeded team? FSU played one of their worst defensive games against the Wolfpack and ran into a buzz saw that night that was in the form of Scott Wood. He put up 31 points going 7 for 13 from beyond the arc. The Noles were in that game as they had five players in double digits. They simply couldn't stop NC State. Part of this may have been the difficult game that Florida State played only two days prior in College Park, Maryland. The defense is playing better now than it has all year and Michael Snaer has developed significantly since that game.

Florida State shot a combined 39% from the floor in the two Clemson games. In the first game, they simply couldn't get the ball to drop. They had good looks, but it wasn't their night. In the second game, the Noles played well enough to win and it shouldn't have even been a close game. Clemson simply couldn't score in the first half. However, it all fell apart in the second half for the Noles. That said, it is hard to beat a team three times in one season. Clemson is worn down now and the injury bug is starting to show up. Clemson does not shoot the ball particularly well from beyond the arc. That plays into the hands of the Noles. But, Clemson's trapping style of defense will cause the Seminoles trouble.

Given the fact that the three games against NC State and Clemson were really atypical for the Noles it is hard to say which one is a better match up. Though, we would love to beat Clemson given the opportunity.

The Playbook -- Solomon Alabi is still very raw in the post, but at 7-1, 240 lbs., one would expect him to average more than six rebounds a game. What has been his biggest problem this year on the boards?

FSUncensored -- Ken Pomeroy wrote an excellent article about effective height and what impact height plays in the game of college basketball. The four stats that were most affected by height were block percentage, 2pt% defense, FG% defense and adjusted defensive efficiency. Solomon is very aggressive in the defensive lane. But that energy is focused on blocking shots, which is one of the best in the country at doing. This gets him out of position to get good rebounds. On offense, he simply gets pushed off the block and doesn't set up well, yet. He needs to get stronger and that will come with time. He has only been playing organized basketball since his junior year of high school.

The Playbook -- FSU has excellent size. How will that help them in Greensboro and in the NCAA Tournament?

FSUncensored -- The Seminoles' starting front court measures 6'9, 6'9 and 7'1. There are few teams in the country that can boast such size up front. However, many of those few teams happen to be in the ACC. The ACC is full of big men this year. Fortunately for the Noles, their bench has just as much size. Meaning the Noles can run big man after big men off the bench and force plenty of match up difficulties for their opponents. Additionally, the Noles' starting guards are 6'4 and 6'5. Plus, these aren't your typical methodical, plodding big men. These guys can get out and run and are highly athletic. This poses significant match up problems on both ends of the court. For example, the Noles ran a 2-3 zone with Solomon Alabi on the wing and Chris Singleton in the middle. It was more of a hybrid 2-1-2 zone, but you get the point. As mentioned previously, you have to be efficient with your possessions in tournament play. Hopefully, the Seminoles can use their size advantage to extend possessions with good rebounding.

The Playbook -- Who is one player we might not hear of very much for the Seminoles that will have a big impact this weekend

FSUncensored -- I don't know if he will have a big weekend, but he needs to have a big weekend: Ryan Reid. The Seminoles' lone senior (who actually plays, there are a couple of walk on seniors this year) is a 6'9 power forward can have a significant impact on the Seminoles success. He isn't flashy but he is one of their work horses in the paint. If he can be consistently successful and reliable on both ends of the court, the Seminoles could have a good tournament.

Another gracious thanks to Mark for helping out. Hopefully a few more bloggers will be stopping by in the next day or two to share their thoughts on the battles down in Greensboro. Once again, be sure to visit Mark's site, Tomohawk Nation, for some great thoughts on everything FSU.

ACC Tournament has chance for some surprises; some others not so much

I don’t want to grow up.

This used to be the one week that I could be a rebel.

In high school, conference tournament week meant sneaking a radio into class Thursday, and playing hookey Friday to follow the most exciting basketball of the year.

All of that is a distant memory now, with flexible college schedules that have me out of class by 11 a.m. on Fridays.

This year it’s even worse! Spring break means I’ll be able to wake up just in time to watch the first group of games from my bed.

Sounds great, but I really do miss the thrill of listening to Wake Forest and Georgia Tech instead of my Earth science teacher.

Anywho, for those of you who live for conference tournament week, this one’s for you.

The ACC Tournament kicks off its week with a slew of crucial first round games on Thursday.

The biggest game of the day will be Georgia Tech versus North Carolina. The Yellow Jackets had an opportunity to lock up an NCAA Tournament bid with a win over Virginia Tech this past Saturday, but with the loss they are out entirely in all likelihood.

The Jackets beat North Carolina handily in their one regular season match-up, and also enjoyed a 20-point lead in the other before holding on to win by two in Chapel Hill, but this game could serve as one to salvage the Heels’ season, so Paul Hewitt’s team better bring their “A” game.

Also huge is Wake Forest and Miami. If it weren’t for UNC, Miami would be the talk of the league as the biggest underachiever. The Hurricanes have some real talent in the backcourt and up front with guys like Dwayne Collins and James Dews, but they struggled in conference play after going unbeaten in the non-conference.

Miami could be the upset special of the weekend, and that’s who I am going with.

Until Wake Forest stunned Clemson to finish the regular season, the Demon Deacons were in a free fall from NCAA lock to squarely on the bubble. Beating the Tigers in a must-win situation was huge, but it is not enough to convince me they have righted the ship entirely.

Clemson should make the field of 65 next Sunday, but a loss to NC State would not help its case. The Wolfpack have the least talented team in the conference, and Clemson should pass by them with ease.

The other game that fans of Greensboro Coliseum will use as their personal two-hour bathroom break is Boston College against Virginia. Neither team will likely make the postseason in any form, and without Sylvan Landesburg playing for the Cavaliers, there is not a single player in this game worth the price of admission.

On to the second round:

As the fourth seed, Virginia Tech saved its season with consecutive wins in the final week of the season, after three straight losses looked to have sent them to the NIT again.

While most of the players and coaches seem to think they are in the NCAA Tournament for sure, there is the possibility they could be jobbed again if they do not win in the ACC quarterfinals.

The Hokies will face the winner of Wake and Miami, which as I said earlier, believe to be Miami.

But for the sake of normalcy, let’s say Wake holds off the Hurricanes. The Hokies beat Wake in an up-and-down game last month in Blacksburg in which Malcolm Delaney went off for 31 points.

Either the Deacons or the Hurricanes are a good matchup for Tech.

Florida State is the darkhorse in the tournament. They have the best chance at matching up with top seed Duke’s size, and are athletic enough to stop the backcourts at Virginia Tech and Maryland.

The Seminoles get the Clemson/NC State winner. Clemson could give them a run with Trevor Booker manning the post, but the ‘Noles should prevail to the semifinals.

Maryland tied Duke for the conference title, but sits in the second seed for the tournament. They get the winner of Georgia Tech and UNC. This one is scary, because both of those potential opponents have firepower. Maryland is playing far and away its best basketball right now, and Greivis Vasquez appears to have locked up conference player of the year honors.

If there were an upset in the second round, it would be in this game.

Duke will name the score of its game against the BC/Virginia winner.

In the semifinals, Duke and Virginia Tech are the most likely to get there. Florida State has a tough matchup with Clemson to get by, but they should be there as well. I’m going to go ahead and say Georgia Tech stuns Maryland in the quarters, leaving Florida State against Georgia Tech and the Blue Devils against the Hokies.

At that point, all four teams would safely be in the NCAA Tournament, so it would be down to seeding and pride on the line. Despite the road loss to Maryland in a death trap game, Duke is playing very well right now. The Blue Devils have had problems away from home, which could be trouble in Greensboro. However, Virginia Tech has not set the world on fire on the road either.

Georgia Tech could give FSU some problems inside. Solomon Alabi against Gani Lawal would be the matchup of the tournament. The Yellow Jackets have the most to prove this week, after getting the short end of the stick in conference scheduling.

Don’t let its seed fool you, Tech is not the seventh-best team in the conference.

After reaching the finals, Duke and Tech would be a good matchup, but there simply is no team in this league that can effectively control both Jon Scheyer and Nolan Smith, while still having enough bodies to keep Kyle Singler and the rest of the Duke frontcourt at bay.

The league is very balanced across the board, but Duke is simply a head above the rest. Stranger things have happened, but the Blue Devils are a tough matchup for anyone else in the ACC, and have a chance to prove that this weekend.