Georgia Tech and NC State try to continue magical ACC Tourney run

#7 Georgia Tech vs.

#11 North Carolina State, approx. 4:00 p.m.

Regular season results – Georgia Tech 73-71 at home on Feb. 6

Team records – Georgia Tech 21-11 (9-9) NC State 19-14 (7-11)

Projected starters-

Georgia Tech (ACC Tourney stats)

G- Iman Shumpert (11.5 ppg, 4 apg)

G- De’Andre Bell (5 ppg, 3.5 rpg)

G- Glen Rice, Jr. (5 ppg, 2-4 3pt)

F- Derrick Favors (15.5 ppg, 10 rpg)

F- Gani Lawal (9.5 ppg, 7.5 rpg)

NC State

G- Javier Gonzalez (7.5 ppg, 3.5 apg, 3 t.o. per game)

G- Scott Wood (12 ppg, 8-12 3pt)

F- Dennis Horner (4.5 ppg, 3.5 rpg)

F- C.J. Williams (10 ppg)

F- Tracy Smith (16 ppg, 7 rpg)

Team statistical comparison

GA TECH		NC STATE
74.2	Points per game	67.7
66.0	Points allowed per game	64.7
64.5%	Free throw percentage	68.5%
37.5%	Three-point percentage	34.0%
40.1	Rebounds per game	34.9
14.3	Assists per game	13.7
16.4	Turnovers per game	13.3

Backcourt –

Neither team boasts a particularly strong backcourt. The Yellow Jackets get the most production from any of their guards out of Iman Shumpert. Shumpert struggled for much of conference play, but has played very well in the first two rounds of this tournament. He is the unsung hero for the Jackets in Greensboro.

Javier Gonzalez runs the point for the Wolfpack, and he has been his usual turnover-prone self in the ACC Tournament, averaging three per game.

Georgia Tech is much stronger and quicker in the backcourt than NC State.

The Wolfpack have been aided this weekend by the red-hot shooting of Scott Wood. Wood has come off the bench to hit eight three’s in two games. He will need a third straight hot game if the ‘Pack want to make it to the finals.

Advantage- Georgia Tech

Frontcourt –

Tracy Smith is a one-man wrecking crew for Sidney Lowe’s team. He is the go-to guy on offense for the Wolfpack; the team goes as he does. He might not face a tougher front line than he will Saturday. Gani Lawal, Derrick Favors, and Zach Peacock are three of the league’s best. Peacock has been exceptional this weekend, and is easily the best player off the bench in the ACC.

Favors is emerging late in the season as one of the nation’s best players. After relatively failing to live up to expectations all season, he is starting to dominate games like everyone expected him to when he arrived at Georgia Tech. Expect another huge game from Favors, whose combination of power and quickness make him virtually impossible to defend.

Advantage – Georgia Tech

Bench –

Peacock makes a huge difference for Georgia Tech. In two games in Greensboro, he is averaging eight points and four rebounds per game. He also has a big impact on the defensive end of the floor. Mo Miller relieves the Jackets’ guards, and is probably their best ball handler.

State’s bench is pretty weak. Wood will likely start today after coming off the bench last night. He has simply been too good to keep off the floor in a huge game like this. Nobody else for the ‘Pack that does not start makes any real impact.

Advantage – Georgia Tech

Coaching –

These are two coaches that seem to have their teams playing their best come conference tournament time. Paul Hewitt and Sidney Lowe are both infamous for underachieving teams until the ACC Tournament rolls around, when they make shocking runs towards the finals. Both coaches have been here before, but Hewitt has a few more years of experience than Lowe. Neither coach is known for making the best tactical adjustments, though.

Advantage- Georgia Tech

Intangibles –

NC State has very little business playing in this game. They essentially managed to stink it up less than its opponent for two straight nights. It is unlikely to happen again.

Georgia Tech, meanwhile, needs to put together two good halves of basketball. Against North Carolina, the Yellow Jackets erased a 10-point halftime deficit to win. Against Maryland, they enjoyed a 19-point lead in the first half before having to withstand a furious second-half rally to beat the Terps.

As far as intangibles go, NC State has much more to play for in this game. The Jackets have already secured their at-large spot in the big dance, while the ‘Pack’s only chance to make the field is to win the conference tournament. Prepare to see coach Lowe’s team play its heart out.

Advantage- NC State

Prediction-

Georgia Tech 64, NC State 55

Duke and Miami clash for unlikely ACC Semifinal Game

#1 Duke vs. #12 Miami, 1:30 p.m.

TV: Raycom Sports – blackout on ESPN2 in all ACC markets

Regular season results –Duke 81-74 at Miami on Feb. 17

Team records – Duke 27-5 (15-3) Miami 20-12 (6-12)

Projected starters –

Duke (ACC tourney stats)

G- Jon Scheyer (15 points, 3 assists)

G- Nolan Smith (15 points, 6 rebounds)

F- Kyle Singler (18 points, 11 rebounds)

F- Lance Thomas (2 points, 2 rebounds)

C- Brian Zoubek (2 points, 7 rebounds)

Miami (ACC tourney stats)

G- Durand Scott (11.5ppg, 3 apg)

G - Malcolm Grant (9 ppg, 4.5 apg)

G- James Dews (11.5 ppg, 6.5 rpg)

F- De’Quan Jones (14 ppg, 4 rpg)

F- Reggie Johnson (13.5 ppg, 8 rpg)

Team statistical comparison

DUKE		MIAMI
78.4	Points per game	72.4
39.2	Rebounds per game	36.3
38.7%	Three-point percentage	36.2%
38.7%	Free throw percentage	67.5%
61.3	Points allowed per game	64.3
14.2	Turnovers per game	11.1

Backcourt–

Duke relies on Jon Scheyer and Nolan Smith virtually exclusively. Neither player leaves the floor hardly ever. Scheyer is a smart offensive player who is a very good outside shooter, but has a good pull-up game against less physical defenders. Smith is arguably the most talented player on the Blue Devils’ roster. He is also a good shooter, but is at his best when he puts the ball on the floor and gets to the rim. He is very nifty around the rim and makes a lot of shots in traffic, usually getting fouled as well.

Miami freshman guard Scott broke out against Virginia Tech on Friday for 17 points, including 12 of the Hurricanes’ final 14. He is an aggressive guard who will stop at nothing to get to the rim. He is going to provide a difficult matchup for Scheyer, who is considerably less quick than Scott. Smith’s likely task will be to defend Malcolm Grant, who ironically is a less talented version of Smith. Grant is strong with the basketball; likes to penetrate but can also shoot from the outside consistently well. He tends to make poor decisions within the offense, though.

Advantage - Duke

Frontcourt–

Kyle Singler is te key to Duke’s success on any night. At 6’8’’, he has size comparable to many posts in the ACC, but is a true small forward. He handles the ball exceptionally well – he is a safe ball-handler. He tends to be very streaky; he may score 15 points in one half and only two the next.

Lance Thomas and Brian Zoubek are purely in the game for rebounding, and they do it well. Both are very active on the offensive glass, and are extremely disciplined players on defense. Zoubek will be a tough matchup for Miami’s Reggie Johnson, who at 295 lbs. makes a living off overpowering his opponent.

James Dews will have to attack Singler on offense and try to get him in foul trouble. Dews is also inconsistent, but when playing well, he is the Hurricanes’ best offensive threat.

Advantage - Duke

Bench –

Miami has played three men off the bench this week – Julian Gamble, Adrian Thomas, and Cyrus McGowan. All three are forwards, but they complete a solid eight-man rotation that is perfect for a team that plays predominantly zone. There is not a noticeable dropoff in production when any of those three are in the game. All three have started at one point this season.

Duke goes deep in the frontcourt, bringing in the Plumlee brothers Miles and Mason off the bench. Miles sees the most minutes off the bench. In the win over Virginia, the bench played 47 out of a possible 200 minutes. If the Blue Devils are going to win any game, it is because of their starting five.

Advantage - Miami

Coaching –

This hardly deserves discussion. Coach Krzyzewski has more ACC Tournament titles than Tiger Woods had affairs. Frank Haith has done a good job this week having his team focused to win basketball games, especially in the absence of leading scorer Dwayne Collins.

Advantage – Duke

Intangibles –

Miami has a heck of a lot more to play for than Duke. The Blue Devils are in the running for a number one seed in the NCAA Tournament, but if you ask Coach K, he’ll tell you he couldn’t care less where his team is seeded. Whether that is true or not, playing for a seed is considerably less intense than playing for merely a spot in the dance.

Miami has played with so much confidence this week despite being heavy underdogs, so don’t expect that trend to stop on Saturday. As long as Miami keeps it close early, they will hang around until the end.

Advantage - Miami

Prediction –

Duke 68, Miami 61

ACC Tournament Quarterfinals Preview

Day one was a doozy, here's a look ahead to Friday's quarterfinal round.

#1 Duke vs.

#9 Virginia, 12:00 p.m.

Regular season results – Duke 67-49 at Virginia on Feb. 28

Team records – Duke 26-5 (13-3) Virginia 15-5 (6-11)

Projected starters –

Duke

G- Jon Scheyer (18.9 ppg, 40% 3pt, 89% FT)

G- Nolan Smith (17.6 ppg, 3.0 apg)

F- Kyle Singler (17.2 ppg, 6.8 rpg)

F- Lance Thomas (5.0 ppg, 5.0 rpg)

C- Brian Zoubek (5.4 ppg, 7.3 rpg)

Virginia (ACC Tournament stats)

G- Mustapha Farrakhan (10 points, 4 assists)

G- Sammy Zeglinski (21 points, 5-10 3pt)

G- Jeff Jones (14 points, 3-5 3pt)

F- Mike Scott (11 points, 13 rebounds)

C- Jerome Meyinsse (12 points, 4 rebounds)

Team statistical comparison –

DUKE	STAT	UVA
79.1	Points per game	66.0
38.9%	Three-point percentage	35.2%
39.2	Rebounds per game	34.0
27.1%	Opponents 3-point %	35.6

Overview –

This one really shouldn’t be very close. The number that jumps off the page with Duke is three-point shooting both offensively and defensively. Not only do the Blue Devils shoot 39 percent from behind the arc, but also they are the number one team in the country in three-point percentage on defense. Duke averages 23.4 points per game from threes, while its opponents average only 10.1.

Virginia already exceeded expectations by snapping a nine-game losing streak sans its leading scorer in round one. Sammy Zeglinski erupted against Boston College, shooting 50 percent from beyond the arc. Virginia is not a very strong outside shooting team typically, but would need a similar performance on Friday to even hang close.

Plain and simple, Duke has too much size for Virginia to handle. The Devils constantly throw large bodies out on the floor, and Virginia is not deep enough to hang around. Expect Nolan Smith and Kyle Singler to have huge games. It would not be surprising to see one or both creep towards the 30-point mark in this game.

Virginia’s best chance in this game is to force those two Devils into foul trouble, and shoot an even higher percentage from three-point range than it did Thursday.

Prediction – Duke 84, Virginia 69

#4 Virginia Tech vs.

#12 Miami, 2:30 p.m.

Regular season results –VT 81-66 at home on Jan. 13, Mia 82-75 at home on Jan. 31

Team records – VT 23-7 (10-6) Miami 19-12 (4-12)

Projected starters –

Virginia Tech

G- Malcolm Delaney (20.9 ppg, 4.2 apg, 3.1 t.o per game)

G- Dorenzo Hudson (14.4 ppg, 3.5 rpg)

F- Terrell Bell (6.0 ppg, 6.2 rpg)

F- Jeff Allen (12.1 ppg, 7.3 rpg, 2.2 spg)

C- Victor Davila (5.3 ppg, 4.3 rpg)

Miami (First round stats)

G-Durand Scott (6 points, 4 assists)

G-Malcolm Grant (9 points, 5 assists)

G- James Dews (15 points, 4 rebounds)

F- DeQuan Jones (14 points, 4 rebounds)

F- Reggie Johnson (22 points, 4 rebounds)

Team statistical comparison –

VA TECH	STAT	MIAMI
73.0	Points per game	72.1
72.5%	Free throw percentage	66.8%
42.6%	Field goal percentage	46.2%
13.8	Points off three-pointers	22.5

Overview –

There may never be as dominating of a victory by the last-place team in a conference tournament ever again like Miami’s 83-62 beatdown of Wake on Thursday. The Hurricanes exploited the Deacons’ weak outside shooting by playing a 2-3 zone much of the game.

Virginia Tech is in the same boat as Wake. The Hokies are one of the weakest three-point shooting teams in the country. In the first matchup between Tech and Miami, the Hokies torched the Hurricanes’ zone, shooting over 60 percent from the field in the first half.

If Seth Greenberg’s club is making outside shots, they are very tough to beat. Malcolm Delaney, Dorenzo Hudson, Terrell Bell and Jeff Allen are all capable of knocking down outside shots, but none do so on a very consistent basis.

Hudson is expected to play despite a foot injury that held him out of the Hokies’ season finale at Georgia Tech.

The X-factor in this game will be Malcolm Delaney, and how effective his jump shot will be. Against a zone, he is less likely to reach the foul line as often as he does (more than seven times per game). This game will be very close, but the Hokies know that a one-and-done in Greensboro just might keep them out of the big dance.

Prediction – Virginia Tech 72, Miami 69

#2 Maryland vs.

#7 Georgia Tech, 7:00 p.m.

Regular season results – Maryland 76-74 at home on Feb. 20

Team records – Maryland 23-7 (13-3) Georgia Tech 20-11 (8-9)

Projected starters –

Maryland

G- Greives Vasquez (19.6 ppg, 6.3 apg, 4.6 rpg)

G- Eric Hayes (11.0 ppg, 45.2% 3pt.)

F- Landon Milbourne (12.4 ppg, 4.9 rpg)

F- Sean Mosley (10.8 ppg, 5.3 rpg)

C- Jordan Williams (9.3 ppg, 8.3 rpg)

Georgia Tech (ACC Tourney stats)

G- Iman Shumpert (9 points, 4 rebounds, 4 assists)

G- De’Andre Bell (8 points, 5 rebounds)

G- Glen Rice, Jr. (8 points, 2-4 3pt.)

F- Derrick Favors (18 points, 9 rebounds)

F- Gani Lawal (12 points, 4 rebounds)

Team statistical comparison –

UMD	STAT	GA TECH
79.8	Points per game	74.7
72.1%	Free throw percentage	65.4%
11.8	Turnovers per game	16.2
71.0	Points allowed per game	71.7

Overview –

Maryland has one of the best teams nobody is talking about as we hit mid-March. Vasquez is the unquestionable leader and go-to guy for Gary Williams’ team, but the Terrapins are deceptively balanced. Eric Hayes is a dynamite outside shooter, and Jordan Williams has emerged as a viable threat in the low post.

Williams will have his hands full with Lawal and Favors, who carried the Jackets past North Carolina in round one. Milbourne and Mosley will have to match the physical play of Georgia Tech to allow Vasquez and Hayes to win the game for them.

The backcourt advantage leans heavily towards the Terrapins. Georgia Tech’s guards have been inconsistent all season. Glen Rice, Jr. is a 45-percent shooter from three-point range, and he will have to knock down shots to give Tech hope.

Favors was ultra-impressive against Carolina Thursday night, and there is no reason to think he won’t build on that as he makes his case as one of the country’s best players. If he comes through with a big game, Tech has a chance.

Prediction – Maryland 74, Georgia Tech 69

#3 Florida State vs.

#11 North Carolina State, 9:30 p.m.

Regular season results – NC St. 88-81 at FSU on Jan. 12

Team records – Florida State 22-8 (10-6) NC State 18-14 (6-11)

Projected starters –

Florida State

G- Michael Snaer (8.9 ppg, 1.3 apg, 2.4 t.o per game)

G- Deividas Dulkys (8.6 ppg, 40.1% 3pt)

G- Derwin Kitchen (8.3 ppg, 4.7 rpg)

F- Chris Singleton (10.4 ppg, 7.2 rpg)

C- Solomon Alabi (11.6 ppg, 6.1 rpg, 2.3 bpg)

NC State (ACC Tourney Stats)

G- Javier Gonzalez (2 points, 4 turnovers)

G- Julius Mays (4 points, 3 turnovers)

F- Dennis Horner (2 points, 4 rebounds)

F- C.J. Williams (8 points, 4-4 FT)

F- Tracy Smith (19 points, 8 rebounds)

Team statistical comparison –

FSU	STAT	NC STATE
69.0	Points per game	68.0
64.9%	Free throw percentage	68.7%
8.4	Steals per game	6.4
60.2	Points allowed per game	65.1

Overview –

In reality, the Wolfpack had no means winning their first-round game against Clemson. They defeated the Tigers 59-57 in a game where Clemson shot 10-of-18 from the foul line and 20-of-51 from the field. Many of the Tigers’ misses were open looks, as David Potter and Andre Young went a combined one-for-12 from the field.

Florida State doesn’t boast much better shooters than Clemson, which is a good sign for the ‘Pack. Sidney Lowe’s gang, which has a knack for winning games in the conference tournament year after year, relies heavily on big man Tracy Smith to lead the way. Smith was the only scorer in double figures for NC State Thursday night.

Florida State likes to play aggressive half-court man-to-man defense, and are one of the best in the country at doing so. The Wolfpack turned the ball over 19 times against Clemson, another anomalistic number considering the fact they won the game. As I’ve said before, State has the worst ball-handling club in the ACC, and it has to catch up to them at some point.

As you can see above, though, Florida State also struggles from the foul line. Freshman guard Michael Snaer was named to the conference’s all-rookie team this week despite an appalling 1:1.8 assist-to-turnover ratio.

Just as Miami was for Wake Forest, NC State is a tough matchup for the ‘Noles, who already lost to the Wolfpack at home in 2010. This could be one ugly game.

Prediction – Florida State 64, NC State 62