2010 ACC Championship Game Preview

#1 Duke vs.

#7 Georgia Tech, 1:30 p.m.

ACC Tourney results –

Duke: beat Virginia 58-47, Miami 77-74

Georgia Tech: beat North Carolina 62-58, Maryland 69-64, NC State 57-54

Regular season results –

Ga. Tech 71-67 at home on Jan. 9, Duke 86-67 at home on Feb. 4

Team records –

Georgia Tech 22-11 (10-9) Duke 28-5 (15-3)

Projected starters –

Georgia Tech (ACC Tourney stats)

G- Iman Shumpert (10 ppg, 4.6 rpg, 3.3 apg)

G- D’Andre Bell (6.3 ppg, 7-9 FG)

G- Glen Rice, Jr. (4.3 ppg, 4.3 rpg)

F- Derrick Favors (15.3 ppg, 9.3 rpg)

F- Gani Lawal (10.3 ppg, 8.3 rpg)

Duke (ACC Tourney stats)

G- Jon Scheyer (15.5 ppg, 5.5 rpg, 3.5 apg)

G- Nolan Smith (13.5 ppg, 4 rpg, 2 apg)

F- Kyle Singler (22.5 ppg, 9.5 rpg, 3 apg)

F- Lance Thomas (3 ppg, 3.5 rpg)

F- Brian Zoubek (4.5 ppg, 6.5 rpg)

Team statistical comparison

DUKE		GA TECH
78.4	Points per game	73.6
39.2	Rebounds per game	40.1
75.9	Free throw percentage	64.3
44.3	Field goal percentage	46.2
1.16	Points per possession	1.03
11.1	Turnovers per game	16.4
1.28/1	Assist/Turnover Ratio	0.87/1

Point guard matchup- Jon Scheyer vs. Iman Shumpert

Scheyer has not been particularly outstanding in this tournament on paper, but in the semifinal win over Miami he was impressive with how selfless he was. A player of his caliber in a slump would often times try and shoot his way out of his cold streak (see: Malcolm Delaney), but Scheyer created opportunities for his teammates, and still ended up scoring 16 points.

Shumpert is another athletic defender to line up against Scheyer. He has emerged in Greensboro to give the Jackets a solid scoring presence on the perimeter, something they desperately need to advance in March. He has not shot the ball particularly well, but attacks the basket and could potentially get Scheyer in foul trouble.

Advantage - Duke

Shooting guard matchup- D’Andre Bell vs. Nolan Smith

Smith is arguably the best player in the ACC that nobody really talks about. He averages nearly 18 points per game, and although he isn’t phenomenally athletic, he is a solid all-around player; nothing about his game stands out above the rest. He has very few glaring weaknesses. His best strength is his ability to finish around the rim.

Bell is a turnover-prone guard that has a good mid-range game. He will provide a solid defensive presence against Smith, but he likely won’t be much of a factor on the offensive end.

Advantage – Duke

Small forward matchup- Kyle Singler vs. Glen Rice, Jr.

This is the biggest position mismatch in favor of the Blue Devils. Rice plays hard defensive, and is extremely long. However, he has trouble fighting through screens, due to inexperience and lack of strength. Singler makes a living coming off down screens and flare screens for spot-up jump shots. He has carried the Devils through to the finals in an otherwise sluggish weekend from the conference’s top seed.

Advantage – Duke

Power forward matchup- Lance Thomas vs. Derrick Favors

This is the biggest position mismatch in favor of the Yellow Jackets. Favors continues to impress during the ACC Tournament. Quite frankly, he has showed by his strong play this weekend that he underachieved for most of the season. He has as complete of a game for a small forward/power forward hybrid as a freshman since Carmelo Anthony.

The Blue Devils rely on Thomas for nothing more than rebounding, especially on the offensive glass. It will be interesting to see how he defends Favors, who is twice the athlete, and player for that matter, that Thomas is.

Expect Miles Plumlee to see a lot of minutes off the bench defending favors. This is not the type of game that suits Thomas very well.

Advantage- Georgia Tech

Center matchup- Brian Zoubek vs. Gani Lawal

Zoubek is the perfect fit in the Duke lineup. With Scheyer, Singler and Smith putting up a number of shots from the outside, Zoubek does a phenomenal job of cleaning up the offensive glass. He tends to get into foul trouble though, which spells trouble against the brutally physical Lawal. Lawal’s skill in the post are raw, but he uses his strength and toughness to earn most of his points.

Advantage- Georgia Tech

Bench matchup –

Duke uses three players off its bench – Miles and Mason Plumlee, and Andre Dawkins. The Plumlee brothers will be needed in this game, because Georgia Tech has the most physical frontcourt in the ACC. Zachary Peacock comes off the Jackets’ bench to spell Lawal and Favors.

Maurice “Mo” Miller is a handy reserve guard for the Jackets, and he will be relied upon by coach Paul Hewitt to provide steady ball handling against the aggressive Duke defense.

Advantage – Even

Overview –

Even though they entered the tournament as the seventh seed, it’s not a surprise to see the Jackets making it to this game. They played the toughest in-conference schedule of anyone in the ACC, which is the main result of their 7-9 record. They played inconsistent at points in the year, but they are playing their best basketball of the year right now.

Favors has been unstoppable as of late, and he could carry them to a win in this game. Singler has been equally as spectacular. One of those two players will undoubtedly be named tournament MVP, depending on the outcome of the game tomorrow.

Scheyer and Smith have had disappointing tournaments. If their struggles continue tomorrow, the Jackets have enough firepower to knock them off.

Prediction –

Georgia Tech 72, Duke 69

Duke and Miami clash for unlikely ACC Semifinal Game

#1 Duke vs. #12 Miami, 1:30 p.m.

TV: Raycom Sports – blackout on ESPN2 in all ACC markets

Regular season results –Duke 81-74 at Miami on Feb. 17

Team records – Duke 27-5 (15-3) Miami 20-12 (6-12)

Projected starters –

Duke (ACC tourney stats)

G- Jon Scheyer (15 points, 3 assists)

G- Nolan Smith (15 points, 6 rebounds)

F- Kyle Singler (18 points, 11 rebounds)

F- Lance Thomas (2 points, 2 rebounds)

C- Brian Zoubek (2 points, 7 rebounds)

Miami (ACC tourney stats)

G- Durand Scott (11.5ppg, 3 apg)

G - Malcolm Grant (9 ppg, 4.5 apg)

G- James Dews (11.5 ppg, 6.5 rpg)

F- De’Quan Jones (14 ppg, 4 rpg)

F- Reggie Johnson (13.5 ppg, 8 rpg)

Team statistical comparison

DUKE		MIAMI
78.4	Points per game	72.4
39.2	Rebounds per game	36.3
38.7%	Three-point percentage	36.2%
38.7%	Free throw percentage	67.5%
61.3	Points allowed per game	64.3
14.2	Turnovers per game	11.1

Backcourt–

Duke relies on Jon Scheyer and Nolan Smith virtually exclusively. Neither player leaves the floor hardly ever. Scheyer is a smart offensive player who is a very good outside shooter, but has a good pull-up game against less physical defenders. Smith is arguably the most talented player on the Blue Devils’ roster. He is also a good shooter, but is at his best when he puts the ball on the floor and gets to the rim. He is very nifty around the rim and makes a lot of shots in traffic, usually getting fouled as well.

Miami freshman guard Scott broke out against Virginia Tech on Friday for 17 points, including 12 of the Hurricanes’ final 14. He is an aggressive guard who will stop at nothing to get to the rim. He is going to provide a difficult matchup for Scheyer, who is considerably less quick than Scott. Smith’s likely task will be to defend Malcolm Grant, who ironically is a less talented version of Smith. Grant is strong with the basketball; likes to penetrate but can also shoot from the outside consistently well. He tends to make poor decisions within the offense, though.

Advantage - Duke

Frontcourt–

Kyle Singler is te key to Duke’s success on any night. At 6’8’’, he has size comparable to many posts in the ACC, but is a true small forward. He handles the ball exceptionally well – he is a safe ball-handler. He tends to be very streaky; he may score 15 points in one half and only two the next.

Lance Thomas and Brian Zoubek are purely in the game for rebounding, and they do it well. Both are very active on the offensive glass, and are extremely disciplined players on defense. Zoubek will be a tough matchup for Miami’s Reggie Johnson, who at 295 lbs. makes a living off overpowering his opponent.

James Dews will have to attack Singler on offense and try to get him in foul trouble. Dews is also inconsistent, but when playing well, he is the Hurricanes’ best offensive threat.

Advantage - Duke

Bench –

Miami has played three men off the bench this week – Julian Gamble, Adrian Thomas, and Cyrus McGowan. All three are forwards, but they complete a solid eight-man rotation that is perfect for a team that plays predominantly zone. There is not a noticeable dropoff in production when any of those three are in the game. All three have started at one point this season.

Duke goes deep in the frontcourt, bringing in the Plumlee brothers Miles and Mason off the bench. Miles sees the most minutes off the bench. In the win over Virginia, the bench played 47 out of a possible 200 minutes. If the Blue Devils are going to win any game, it is because of their starting five.

Advantage - Miami

Coaching –

This hardly deserves discussion. Coach Krzyzewski has more ACC Tournament titles than Tiger Woods had affairs. Frank Haith has done a good job this week having his team focused to win basketball games, especially in the absence of leading scorer Dwayne Collins.

Advantage – Duke

Intangibles –

Miami has a heck of a lot more to play for than Duke. The Blue Devils are in the running for a number one seed in the NCAA Tournament, but if you ask Coach K, he’ll tell you he couldn’t care less where his team is seeded. Whether that is true or not, playing for a seed is considerably less intense than playing for merely a spot in the dance.

Miami has played with so much confidence this week despite being heavy underdogs, so don’t expect that trend to stop on Saturday. As long as Miami keeps it close early, they will hang around until the end.

Advantage - Miami

Prediction –

Duke 68, Miami 61

Why Duke can’t win championships anymore

 It’s the same story every year.

 

Mike Krzyzewski does a “phenomenal coaching job” with “less athletic” but “intelligent, fundamentally sound” basketball players. Duke runs through the ACC schedule with between 11 and 13 wins, sometimes more, and come March the country seems to think the Devils are ready for a run at national title.

In the past eight seasons, the Devils have gone a combined 94-29 in ACC games. What do they have to show for it? One final four appearance and no other games past the sweet sixteen.

It’s happening again this year. Duke is surging through the ACC and has all but locked up the regular season title.

Fact of the matter is, winning the ACC isn’t all it used to be cracked up to be.

In the past six seasons (since the conference expanded to 11, and eventually 12 teams), only North Carolina has made it past the Sweet Sixteen; the Heels and Devils are the only teams to make it to the tournament’s second weekend in that span.

It simply is not as tough to make it through the ACC schedule in 2010 as it was in 1990. While conferences like the Big East soar in the conference expansion era, the ACC is losing its luster.

This is evidenced by the fact that Duke controls the conference during the regular season, then fizzles in tournament play.

Let’s look at the scores of recent tournament games that eliminated the Blue Devils:

 

2009: (3) Villanova 77,  (2) Duke 54 – Villanova couldn't carry the momentum of a 23-point win to a national title, and would go on to lose in the Final Four to North Carolina 83-69.

 

2008: (7) West Virginia 78, (2) Duke 63 – The Mountaineers blew out the Blue Devils, then bowed out to Atlantic 10 powerhouse Xavier in the next round.

 

2007: (11) Virginia Commonwealth 79 (6) Duke 77 – that’s right, the Colonial Athletic Association champs handed Duke a one-way ticket to Durham on the tournament’s first night.

 

2006: (4) LSU 62, (1) Duke 54 – The J.J. Redick era ended tragically with a loss to the Tigers, led by rising star Tyrus Thomas, who's still trying to find a consistent jump shot.

It hasn’t been a good run in March for Duke lately. Unfortunately for Cameron Crazies, the formula of playing three or four players 35 minutes or more per game and relying on those players for nearly 70% of your scoring only gets you so far.

The triumvirate of Jon Scheyer, Nolan Smith and Kyle Singler are imposing for sure, but if you take away their averages, the rest of the team scores 26 points per game.

In 2006-07, Duke played four starters over 30 minutes per game, and only two players off the bench averaged more than 10 minutes per game. College athletes aren’t built to handle that sort of endurance test, and that’s part of the reason why teams like VCU can shock the world come March.

In 2005-2006, Duke also used a seven-man rotation. Even with national player of the year J.J. Redick on its side, the Devils still fizzled out in the sweet sixteen despite a number one seed.

It just doesn’t work to have a couple of the best fundamental players in the country and little else. Teams with deep, athletic, experienced teams are the ones that win championships.

That used to be the case in Durham, when names like Jay Williams, Carlos Boozer, Trajan Langdon, Grant Hill, Elton Brand, Shane Battier, and Chris Duhon slapped the Cameron Indoor hardwood.

Any players like that that have come through Duke recently have not managed to stay very long, like Josh McRoberts and Luol Deng to name a few.

Until the formula for success at Duke gets an overhaul, Blue Devil fans should just remain content with regular season glory and postseason flops. 

--note: this post was meant to be written with bias against the Blue Devils and a response to criticism for lack of substance when discussing Duke basketball. This in no way reflects the future of this blog as an objective and mudslinging source of writing.