Midwest Region Swing Picks – games that can make or break your bracket

I’ve covered the locks, now it’s time for the games that will continue to give me ulcers right up until tip-off. These are not my big upset picks, rather they are the games that will be the absolute closest games of the first round. Give a moment to vomit once again, and we’ll begin…

Ok I’m ready.

Midwest – (8) UNLV/(9) Northern Iowa, (7) Oklahoma State/(10) Georgia Tech

I know it’s awful cliché to peg an 8/9 game as a close call. I know, I’m risky… but this game involves two teams I thought could have made some noise in the tournament.

UNLV (25-8) finished as the runner-up in the Mountain West Conference Tournament, one of the toughest leagues in the country. The Rebels beat BYU twice, San Diego State once, and Louisville – all teams with very good backcourts.

Tre’Von Willis is the leader for UNLV. The 6’4’’ shooting guard averages 17.3 points per game.

Northern Iowa is a very dangerous team that was probably underseeded at eight. The Panthers (28-4) don’t have a star player like Willis to rely on, but they do have an experienced and balanced bunch. They did lose to lowly DePaul, but it was the second game of the season, so I don’t put any stock in that.

They do boast wins over Siena, Boston College and Old Dominion. All three of their conference losses were on the road, but they cruised in the Missouri Valley Tournament, winning all three games by an average of 15.6 points.

Pick – Northern Iowa -4

My eraser was worth the investment because of the Oklahoma State/Georgia Tech matchup alone. I constantly flip-flop who I think can win this game between two inconsistent teams with plenty of talent.

The Cowboys (22-10) rely heavily on two things: a) James Anderson, the Big 12 Player of the Year, and b) the three-point shot.

In the Cowboys’ two biggest wins of the season (Kansas State and Kansas), Anderson averaged 28.5 points. However, he turned it over eight times combined in those two games. There were five games this season where he turned it over at least five times.

Obi Muonelo and Keiton Page round out the perimeter for the Cowboys. Muonelo shoots 43.3 percent from three, while Page shoots 37.4 percent. With three good shooters like that, it’s hard to count the Cowboys out of any game.

Georgia Tech (22-12) is a mirror image of Oklahoma State. The Jackets’ premier players are all in the frontcourt, including freshman sensation Derrick Favors, who has an outside shot at being the top overall pick in the NBA Draft.

Along with Favors, Gani Lawal and Zach Peacock round out a fearsome trio. All three are physical players who own the boards. Oklahoma State does not really have an answer for that.

The guard play is what scares me away from Paul Hewitt’s squad though. Iman Shumpert could score 20 points, or he could go 0-for-10 from the field on any given night. He also turns the ball over far too often.

Georgia Tech ran through the ACC Tournament all the way to the finals, where it almost beat Duke. The only impressive win during the tournament run though was against Maryland.

Typically, the team with better guard play gets the edge when I make my picks, but the Cowboys don’t take care of the ball well enough to make me think they can overcome the Jackets’ post dominance.

Pick – Georgia Tech -3.5

2010 ACC Championship Game Preview

#1 Duke vs.

#7 Georgia Tech, 1:30 p.m.

ACC Tourney results –

Duke: beat Virginia 58-47, Miami 77-74

Georgia Tech: beat North Carolina 62-58, Maryland 69-64, NC State 57-54

Regular season results –

Ga. Tech 71-67 at home on Jan. 9, Duke 86-67 at home on Feb. 4

Team records –

Georgia Tech 22-11 (10-9) Duke 28-5 (15-3)

Projected starters –

Georgia Tech (ACC Tourney stats)

G- Iman Shumpert (10 ppg, 4.6 rpg, 3.3 apg)

G- D’Andre Bell (6.3 ppg, 7-9 FG)

G- Glen Rice, Jr. (4.3 ppg, 4.3 rpg)

F- Derrick Favors (15.3 ppg, 9.3 rpg)

F- Gani Lawal (10.3 ppg, 8.3 rpg)

Duke (ACC Tourney stats)

G- Jon Scheyer (15.5 ppg, 5.5 rpg, 3.5 apg)

G- Nolan Smith (13.5 ppg, 4 rpg, 2 apg)

F- Kyle Singler (22.5 ppg, 9.5 rpg, 3 apg)

F- Lance Thomas (3 ppg, 3.5 rpg)

F- Brian Zoubek (4.5 ppg, 6.5 rpg)

Team statistical comparison

DUKE		GA TECH
78.4	Points per game	73.6
39.2	Rebounds per game	40.1
75.9	Free throw percentage	64.3
44.3	Field goal percentage	46.2
1.16	Points per possession	1.03
11.1	Turnovers per game	16.4
1.28/1	Assist/Turnover Ratio	0.87/1

Point guard matchup- Jon Scheyer vs. Iman Shumpert

Scheyer has not been particularly outstanding in this tournament on paper, but in the semifinal win over Miami he was impressive with how selfless he was. A player of his caliber in a slump would often times try and shoot his way out of his cold streak (see: Malcolm Delaney), but Scheyer created opportunities for his teammates, and still ended up scoring 16 points.

Shumpert is another athletic defender to line up against Scheyer. He has emerged in Greensboro to give the Jackets a solid scoring presence on the perimeter, something they desperately need to advance in March. He has not shot the ball particularly well, but attacks the basket and could potentially get Scheyer in foul trouble.

Advantage - Duke

Shooting guard matchup- D’Andre Bell vs. Nolan Smith

Smith is arguably the best player in the ACC that nobody really talks about. He averages nearly 18 points per game, and although he isn’t phenomenally athletic, he is a solid all-around player; nothing about his game stands out above the rest. He has very few glaring weaknesses. His best strength is his ability to finish around the rim.

Bell is a turnover-prone guard that has a good mid-range game. He will provide a solid defensive presence against Smith, but he likely won’t be much of a factor on the offensive end.

Advantage – Duke

Small forward matchup- Kyle Singler vs. Glen Rice, Jr.

This is the biggest position mismatch in favor of the Blue Devils. Rice plays hard defensive, and is extremely long. However, he has trouble fighting through screens, due to inexperience and lack of strength. Singler makes a living coming off down screens and flare screens for spot-up jump shots. He has carried the Devils through to the finals in an otherwise sluggish weekend from the conference’s top seed.

Advantage – Duke

Power forward matchup- Lance Thomas vs. Derrick Favors

This is the biggest position mismatch in favor of the Yellow Jackets. Favors continues to impress during the ACC Tournament. Quite frankly, he has showed by his strong play this weekend that he underachieved for most of the season. He has as complete of a game for a small forward/power forward hybrid as a freshman since Carmelo Anthony.

The Blue Devils rely on Thomas for nothing more than rebounding, especially on the offensive glass. It will be interesting to see how he defends Favors, who is twice the athlete, and player for that matter, that Thomas is.

Expect Miles Plumlee to see a lot of minutes off the bench defending favors. This is not the type of game that suits Thomas very well.

Advantage- Georgia Tech

Center matchup- Brian Zoubek vs. Gani Lawal

Zoubek is the perfect fit in the Duke lineup. With Scheyer, Singler and Smith putting up a number of shots from the outside, Zoubek does a phenomenal job of cleaning up the offensive glass. He tends to get into foul trouble though, which spells trouble against the brutally physical Lawal. Lawal’s skill in the post are raw, but he uses his strength and toughness to earn most of his points.

Advantage- Georgia Tech

Bench matchup –

Duke uses three players off its bench – Miles and Mason Plumlee, and Andre Dawkins. The Plumlee brothers will be needed in this game, because Georgia Tech has the most physical frontcourt in the ACC. Zachary Peacock comes off the Jackets’ bench to spell Lawal and Favors.

Maurice “Mo” Miller is a handy reserve guard for the Jackets, and he will be relied upon by coach Paul Hewitt to provide steady ball handling against the aggressive Duke defense.

Advantage – Even

Overview –

Even though they entered the tournament as the seventh seed, it’s not a surprise to see the Jackets making it to this game. They played the toughest in-conference schedule of anyone in the ACC, which is the main result of their 7-9 record. They played inconsistent at points in the year, but they are playing their best basketball of the year right now.

Favors has been unstoppable as of late, and he could carry them to a win in this game. Singler has been equally as spectacular. One of those two players will undoubtedly be named tournament MVP, depending on the outcome of the game tomorrow.

Scheyer and Smith have had disappointing tournaments. If their struggles continue tomorrow, the Jackets have enough firepower to knock them off.

Prediction –

Georgia Tech 72, Duke 69

Georgia Tech and NC State try to continue magical ACC Tourney run

#7 Georgia Tech vs.

#11 North Carolina State, approx. 4:00 p.m.

Regular season results – Georgia Tech 73-71 at home on Feb. 6

Team records – Georgia Tech 21-11 (9-9) NC State 19-14 (7-11)

Projected starters-

Georgia Tech (ACC Tourney stats)

G- Iman Shumpert (11.5 ppg, 4 apg)

G- De’Andre Bell (5 ppg, 3.5 rpg)

G- Glen Rice, Jr. (5 ppg, 2-4 3pt)

F- Derrick Favors (15.5 ppg, 10 rpg)

F- Gani Lawal (9.5 ppg, 7.5 rpg)

NC State

G- Javier Gonzalez (7.5 ppg, 3.5 apg, 3 t.o. per game)

G- Scott Wood (12 ppg, 8-12 3pt)

F- Dennis Horner (4.5 ppg, 3.5 rpg)

F- C.J. Williams (10 ppg)

F- Tracy Smith (16 ppg, 7 rpg)

Team statistical comparison

GA TECH		NC STATE
74.2	Points per game	67.7
66.0	Points allowed per game	64.7
64.5%	Free throw percentage	68.5%
37.5%	Three-point percentage	34.0%
40.1	Rebounds per game	34.9
14.3	Assists per game	13.7
16.4	Turnovers per game	13.3

Backcourt –

Neither team boasts a particularly strong backcourt. The Yellow Jackets get the most production from any of their guards out of Iman Shumpert. Shumpert struggled for much of conference play, but has played very well in the first two rounds of this tournament. He is the unsung hero for the Jackets in Greensboro.

Javier Gonzalez runs the point for the Wolfpack, and he has been his usual turnover-prone self in the ACC Tournament, averaging three per game.

Georgia Tech is much stronger and quicker in the backcourt than NC State.

The Wolfpack have been aided this weekend by the red-hot shooting of Scott Wood. Wood has come off the bench to hit eight three’s in two games. He will need a third straight hot game if the ‘Pack want to make it to the finals.

Advantage- Georgia Tech

Frontcourt –

Tracy Smith is a one-man wrecking crew for Sidney Lowe’s team. He is the go-to guy on offense for the Wolfpack; the team goes as he does. He might not face a tougher front line than he will Saturday. Gani Lawal, Derrick Favors, and Zach Peacock are three of the league’s best. Peacock has been exceptional this weekend, and is easily the best player off the bench in the ACC.

Favors is emerging late in the season as one of the nation’s best players. After relatively failing to live up to expectations all season, he is starting to dominate games like everyone expected him to when he arrived at Georgia Tech. Expect another huge game from Favors, whose combination of power and quickness make him virtually impossible to defend.

Advantage – Georgia Tech

Bench –

Peacock makes a huge difference for Georgia Tech. In two games in Greensboro, he is averaging eight points and four rebounds per game. He also has a big impact on the defensive end of the floor. Mo Miller relieves the Jackets’ guards, and is probably their best ball handler.

State’s bench is pretty weak. Wood will likely start today after coming off the bench last night. He has simply been too good to keep off the floor in a huge game like this. Nobody else for the ‘Pack that does not start makes any real impact.

Advantage – Georgia Tech

Coaching –

These are two coaches that seem to have their teams playing their best come conference tournament time. Paul Hewitt and Sidney Lowe are both infamous for underachieving teams until the ACC Tournament rolls around, when they make shocking runs towards the finals. Both coaches have been here before, but Hewitt has a few more years of experience than Lowe. Neither coach is known for making the best tactical adjustments, though.

Advantage- Georgia Tech

Intangibles –

NC State has very little business playing in this game. They essentially managed to stink it up less than its opponent for two straight nights. It is unlikely to happen again.

Georgia Tech, meanwhile, needs to put together two good halves of basketball. Against North Carolina, the Yellow Jackets erased a 10-point halftime deficit to win. Against Maryland, they enjoyed a 19-point lead in the first half before having to withstand a furious second-half rally to beat the Terps.

As far as intangibles go, NC State has much more to play for in this game. The Jackets have already secured their at-large spot in the big dance, while the ‘Pack’s only chance to make the field is to win the conference tournament. Prepare to see coach Lowe’s team play its heart out.

Advantage- NC State

Prediction-

Georgia Tech 64, NC State 55

One Play Said It All - North Carolina Ousted at ACC Tournament

Talk about one giant nutshell.

With one play late in North Carolina’s 62-58 loss to Georgia Tech Thursday night, the Tar Heels’ season was summarized perfectly.

Trailing by four with 1:30 left in the game, point guard Larry Drew tossed a soft pass across the perimeter, which was intercepted by Tech’s De’Andre Bell.

As Bell sprinted toward the opposite basket, he was stopped only by a foul on Drew.

Nevermind that for 38 minutes, Drew had reversed the fortunes of a forgettable 2009-10 season.

At one point in the game, the maligned sophomore had seven assists and only two turnovers. He finished with eight assists, and five turnovers, none more devastating than the pass to Bell.

The game had much more buzz than many would have thought halfway through, when Carolina led 34-24 at the break.

Bodies were hitting the floor. Runaway Tar Heels dove for loose balls and deflected passes left and right, creating a scene unfamiliar to anyone who followed the team this season. Most of the time, the hustling culprit was 7’1’’ sophomore Tyler Zeller.

Zeller played the best game of his career, bar none. He finished with 17 points and 10 rebounds.

On the other side, however, Zeller and the Heels had no answer for Jackets’ freshman sensation Derrick Favors. Favors hit his first seven shots en route to 18 points while also adding nine rebounds.

He dominated in the post. He blew by defenders off the dribble. When it was all said and done, Favors left little doubt that he should be a top-five pick in June’s NBA draft. His blocked shot on a Zeller fast break lay-up attempt helped thwart a late push by the Heels.

Meanwhile, Gani Lawal manhandled Deon Thompson, frequently beating the senior Tar Heel to rebounds on both ends of the floor, and taking the ball right at Thompson’s chin with the ball in the paint.

Lawal and Favors exposed Carolina’s big men for what they are – long, athletic, but weak.

Both teams received performances from their backcourts that can only be described as shaky at best.

Will Graves obliterated Carolina’s hopes with a one-for-eight mark from three-point range. Most of those shots were open looks that were simply off the mark.

In limited minutes, freshmen Dexter Strickland and Leslie McDonald provided much more consistent play than Graves. At the very least, the rookies played energetic defense, something Graves has never been known to do.

The Yellow Jackets saw guards Iman Shumpert and Glen Rice, Jr. make an equal number of outstanding plays as awful ones. Both players hit big shots during the early second-half comeback, but they both forced several shots at inopportune moments late in the game.

Even after Tech erased the double-digit halftime deficit, Carolina hung tough until the end.

It all came back to that Drew turnover and subsequent foul. High hopes thanks to an outstanding first half were unfulfilled, in similar fashion to the entire season. With a late glimmer of glory seemed within reach, a lazy, ill-advised, poorly timed turnover effectively ended the game, as it did the season.