Midwest Region Swing Picks – games that can make or break your bracket

I’ve covered the locks, now it’s time for the games that will continue to give me ulcers right up until tip-off. These are not my big upset picks, rather they are the games that will be the absolute closest games of the first round. Give a moment to vomit once again, and we’ll begin…

Ok I’m ready.

Midwest – (8) UNLV/(9) Northern Iowa, (7) Oklahoma State/(10) Georgia Tech

I know it’s awful cliché to peg an 8/9 game as a close call. I know, I’m risky… but this game involves two teams I thought could have made some noise in the tournament.

UNLV (25-8) finished as the runner-up in the Mountain West Conference Tournament, one of the toughest leagues in the country. The Rebels beat BYU twice, San Diego State once, and Louisville – all teams with very good backcourts.

Tre’Von Willis is the leader for UNLV. The 6’4’’ shooting guard averages 17.3 points per game.

Northern Iowa is a very dangerous team that was probably underseeded at eight. The Panthers (28-4) don’t have a star player like Willis to rely on, but they do have an experienced and balanced bunch. They did lose to lowly DePaul, but it was the second game of the season, so I don’t put any stock in that.

They do boast wins over Siena, Boston College and Old Dominion. All three of their conference losses were on the road, but they cruised in the Missouri Valley Tournament, winning all three games by an average of 15.6 points.

Pick – Northern Iowa -4

My eraser was worth the investment because of the Oklahoma State/Georgia Tech matchup alone. I constantly flip-flop who I think can win this game between two inconsistent teams with plenty of talent.

The Cowboys (22-10) rely heavily on two things: a) James Anderson, the Big 12 Player of the Year, and b) the three-point shot.

In the Cowboys’ two biggest wins of the season (Kansas State and Kansas), Anderson averaged 28.5 points. However, he turned it over eight times combined in those two games. There were five games this season where he turned it over at least five times.

Obi Muonelo and Keiton Page round out the perimeter for the Cowboys. Muonelo shoots 43.3 percent from three, while Page shoots 37.4 percent. With three good shooters like that, it’s hard to count the Cowboys out of any game.

Georgia Tech (22-12) is a mirror image of Oklahoma State. The Jackets’ premier players are all in the frontcourt, including freshman sensation Derrick Favors, who has an outside shot at being the top overall pick in the NBA Draft.

Along with Favors, Gani Lawal and Zach Peacock round out a fearsome trio. All three are physical players who own the boards. Oklahoma State does not really have an answer for that.

The guard play is what scares me away from Paul Hewitt’s squad though. Iman Shumpert could score 20 points, or he could go 0-for-10 from the field on any given night. He also turns the ball over far too often.

Georgia Tech ran through the ACC Tournament all the way to the finals, where it almost beat Duke. The only impressive win during the tournament run though was against Maryland.

Typically, the team with better guard play gets the edge when I make my picks, but the Cowboys don’t take care of the ball well enough to make me think they can overcome the Jackets’ post dominance.

Pick – Georgia Tech -3.5

Three-point play: February 10, 2010

1. The Big Ten could put five teams in the Sweet Sixteen

A little more than a week ago, the Big Ten Conference appeared to be a race for second place. Michigan State was unbeaten in conference play and the class of the league. Fast-forward to today, and the Spartans are in the midst of a three-game losing streak and a tie for first place in the conference.

Illinois (17-8, 9-3) is surging, after beating the Spartans over the weekend then Wisconsin on the road Tuesday night. Purdue and Ohio State (8-3 in the Big 10) are both a half game behind the Illini and Spartans for the league’s best record. Wisconsin, at 8-4, is in fifth place but only a game behind the leaders.

Every one of those five teams has played a quality out of conference schedule and proven they can win on the nation’s biggest stage. Of those five teams, all are likely to be top five seeds in the NCAA Tournament.

2. The Big East could put four teams in the Elite 8

While not as deep as it was last year, the Big East has four of the nation’s best teams this season, and they are all playing like it right now. Georgetown has recovered from earlier struggles and sit in fourth place. This past Saturday, they were most impressive in beating conference leader Villanova at home.

Despite the loss by the Wildcats, they still look very strong and are easily the deepest team Jay Wright has had with the program. Scottie Reynolds has developed into a real leader for this team, rather than just the most talented player.

Syracuse is also extremely dangerous. They are tied atop the standings with Villanova at 10-1. The biggest concern for the Orange involving the tournament is inexperience at point guard. Brandon Triche has surprised everyone with his steady play as a freshman (9.5 ppg, 3.1 apg,), but history tells us it’s near impossible to win a championship with a rookie at that position.

The Orange also shoot 65% from the foul line as a team…not the most comforting of statistics for Syracuse fans. Still, it’s hard to argue that at 23-1, the Orange are not one of the best three or four teams in America.

West Virginia will also make a strong push in March. The Mountaineers are one of the more lengthy teams in the country, although they lack physicality inside. De’Sean Butler, Kevin Jones, and Devin Ebanks are all stars on the wing, and fit in perfectly with Coach Bob Huggins’ trapping defensive schemes. West Virginia traditionally plays very well during the postseason, and this is the most talented team the program has had in years.

3. Cinderella Alert: Siena, Butler, Northern Iowa

The Siena Saints, who knocked off Ohio State in the first round of last year’s NCAA Tournament, are riding high again this season. The Saints are 21-4 and 14-0 on the season. In the non-conference schedule, they faced both Georgia Tech and Temple on the road. Those types of games will prepare them well for the tournament.

When they make the big dance, you’ll be sure to hear about the Saints’ reserve player, Just-in’love Smith. He’s only played in four games, but that’s too cool of a name to keep off the air.

They’ll be known as a Cinderella, but if Northern Iowa makes it deep into March, it would not be that much of a surprise. The Panthers are 12-1 and in first place in the Missouri Valley Conference, which has produced several bracket busters this decade.

The Panthers are ranked no. 18 in the AP poll, so they have been recognized for their strong play thus far. They beat Boston College earlier this season on a neutral court, and they should easily earn an at-large bid should they falter in the conference tournament.

Butler also falls under a similar category as Northern Iowa. The Bulldogs were ranked in the top 20 of every preseason poll you could get your hands on. Now ranked 15^th in the country, Brad Stevens’ team has recovered from a few disappointing early-season losses to be 21-4 and 14-0 in the Horizon League. Their best win so far this season came against Ohio State in December, but the Buckeyes were without Evan Turner.

All three of these programs hail from little-known conferences, but they have been on cruise control over the past month and a half and could make serious noise during March Madness.