Swing Picks – West Region

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My ulcers haven’t gone anywhere yet. Fackkkkkk…

(4) Vanderbilt vs. (13) Murray State

Under coach Kevin Stallings, the Commodores (24-8) have been consistently good; never have they been great.

Vanderbilt enters the game as losers in two of its last three games. Both losses were against non-tournament teams.

The Commodores are extremely deep. Nine players average more than 12 minutes per game, while only one averages more than 30. A.J. Ogilvy is the most recognizable player on the team. The Australian center was a breakout freshman in 2008, but has not really improved much since then. He has good shooting touch but is not very physical in the paint.

The Racers (30-4) are also extremely deep. All five starters average double-digit scoring. As a team, the Racers score at a rapid pace (77 points per game), which leads me to believe they are more than ready for an up-and-down game with a slower Vanderbilt team.

The Commodores play bad defense at times, quite frankly. They allow nearly 70 points per game on average.

However, Murray State doesn’t have that signature win I’d like to see from the regular season that proves it can play with the big boys.

The Racers opened the season with a five-point loss to California, but other than that they never played anyone else that is still playing basketball.

Pick – Murray State -1

(5) Butler vs. (12) UTEP

I really, really like Butler. The Bulldogs had no fear in scheduling a brutal slate in the non-conference, and claimed wins over Ohio State and Xavier in the process. All five starters from 2008-09 returned this season, and they ran the table in the Horizon league, going 18-0 and also took home the conference tournament.

Gordon Hayward (15.4 ppg), Shelvin Mack (13.9 ppg) and Matt Howard (12.3 ppg) form one of the best trio of players this side of Durham.

The selection committee did them no favors (surprise, surprise) by matching them up with Conference USA regular season champion UTEP in the first round.

The Miners (26-6) dominated its somewhat unusually pedestrian conference, but lost to Houston in the league championship in surprising fashion.

If UTEP is able to pull off the upset, it will be because of guard Randy Culpeper. Culpeper scores 18 points per game, and has scored more than 30 points three times. In a win against East Carolina in February, Culpeper lit up the Pirates for 45 points.

The Miners just haven’t beaten anyone very impressive. Their record against teams in the NCAA Tournament is 3-4. Those wins were against a 16-seed, 12-seed and a 13-seed. It’s hard to say they can hang with Butler, but they just might.

Pick – Butler -3.5

(6) Xavier vs. (11) Minnesota

The Musketeers (24-8) finished tied for first place in the rugged Atlantic 10, a noteworthy accomplishment. That fact alone leads me to think they will succeed in the big dance. However, their record against tournament teams is subpar. In nine games against teams that made the field of 65, the Musketeers were 2-7.

Minnesota (21-13) turned a Big Ten Championship game run into an at-large bid, after nobody thought they had a chance to make the tournament a week and a half ago. In the conference tournament, they beat Purdue and Michigan State, who are four and five seeds respectively in the NCAA Tournament.

The Golden Gophers have proved they can beat the nation’s elite. They beat Ohio State, Wisconsin, and Illinois during the regular season. They have a solid backcourt with three good guards in Lawrence Westbrook, Blake Hoffarber and Devoe Joseph. Their balanced lineup allows them to play at a variety of speeds.

The Musketeers should win this game – they have the more talented team at least – but Minnesota has played better in games against better competition. This will be one of the closest games in the first round.

Pick – Xavier -1

Three-point play: February 10, 2010

1. The Big Ten could put five teams in the Sweet Sixteen

A little more than a week ago, the Big Ten Conference appeared to be a race for second place. Michigan State was unbeaten in conference play and the class of the league. Fast-forward to today, and the Spartans are in the midst of a three-game losing streak and a tie for first place in the conference.

Illinois (17-8, 9-3) is surging, after beating the Spartans over the weekend then Wisconsin on the road Tuesday night. Purdue and Ohio State (8-3 in the Big 10) are both a half game behind the Illini and Spartans for the league’s best record. Wisconsin, at 8-4, is in fifth place but only a game behind the leaders.

Every one of those five teams has played a quality out of conference schedule and proven they can win on the nation’s biggest stage. Of those five teams, all are likely to be top five seeds in the NCAA Tournament.

2. The Big East could put four teams in the Elite 8

While not as deep as it was last year, the Big East has four of the nation’s best teams this season, and they are all playing like it right now. Georgetown has recovered from earlier struggles and sit in fourth place. This past Saturday, they were most impressive in beating conference leader Villanova at home.

Despite the loss by the Wildcats, they still look very strong and are easily the deepest team Jay Wright has had with the program. Scottie Reynolds has developed into a real leader for this team, rather than just the most talented player.

Syracuse is also extremely dangerous. They are tied atop the standings with Villanova at 10-1. The biggest concern for the Orange involving the tournament is inexperience at point guard. Brandon Triche has surprised everyone with his steady play as a freshman (9.5 ppg, 3.1 apg,), but history tells us it’s near impossible to win a championship with a rookie at that position.

The Orange also shoot 65% from the foul line as a team…not the most comforting of statistics for Syracuse fans. Still, it’s hard to argue that at 23-1, the Orange are not one of the best three or four teams in America.

West Virginia will also make a strong push in March. The Mountaineers are one of the more lengthy teams in the country, although they lack physicality inside. De’Sean Butler, Kevin Jones, and Devin Ebanks are all stars on the wing, and fit in perfectly with Coach Bob Huggins’ trapping defensive schemes. West Virginia traditionally plays very well during the postseason, and this is the most talented team the program has had in years.

3. Cinderella Alert: Siena, Butler, Northern Iowa

The Siena Saints, who knocked off Ohio State in the first round of last year’s NCAA Tournament, are riding high again this season. The Saints are 21-4 and 14-0 on the season. In the non-conference schedule, they faced both Georgia Tech and Temple on the road. Those types of games will prepare them well for the tournament.

When they make the big dance, you’ll be sure to hear about the Saints’ reserve player, Just-in’love Smith. He’s only played in four games, but that’s too cool of a name to keep off the air.

They’ll be known as a Cinderella, but if Northern Iowa makes it deep into March, it would not be that much of a surprise. The Panthers are 12-1 and in first place in the Missouri Valley Conference, which has produced several bracket busters this decade.

The Panthers are ranked no. 18 in the AP poll, so they have been recognized for their strong play thus far. They beat Boston College earlier this season on a neutral court, and they should easily earn an at-large bid should they falter in the conference tournament.

Butler also falls under a similar category as Northern Iowa. The Bulldogs were ranked in the top 20 of every preseason poll you could get your hands on. Now ranked 15^th in the country, Brad Stevens’ team has recovered from a few disappointing early-season losses to be 21-4 and 14-0 in the Horizon League. Their best win so far this season came against Ohio State in December, but the Buckeyes were without Evan Turner.

All three of these programs hail from little-known conferences, but they have been on cruise control over the past month and a half and could make serious noise during March Madness.