Swing Picks – West Region

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My ulcers haven’t gone anywhere yet. Fackkkkkk…

(4) Vanderbilt vs. (13) Murray State

Under coach Kevin Stallings, the Commodores (24-8) have been consistently good; never have they been great.

Vanderbilt enters the game as losers in two of its last three games. Both losses were against non-tournament teams.

The Commodores are extremely deep. Nine players average more than 12 minutes per game, while only one averages more than 30. A.J. Ogilvy is the most recognizable player on the team. The Australian center was a breakout freshman in 2008, but has not really improved much since then. He has good shooting touch but is not very physical in the paint.

The Racers (30-4) are also extremely deep. All five starters average double-digit scoring. As a team, the Racers score at a rapid pace (77 points per game), which leads me to believe they are more than ready for an up-and-down game with a slower Vanderbilt team.

The Commodores play bad defense at times, quite frankly. They allow nearly 70 points per game on average.

However, Murray State doesn’t have that signature win I’d like to see from the regular season that proves it can play with the big boys.

The Racers opened the season with a five-point loss to California, but other than that they never played anyone else that is still playing basketball.

Pick – Murray State -1

(5) Butler vs. (12) UTEP

I really, really like Butler. The Bulldogs had no fear in scheduling a brutal slate in the non-conference, and claimed wins over Ohio State and Xavier in the process. All five starters from 2008-09 returned this season, and they ran the table in the Horizon league, going 18-0 and also took home the conference tournament.

Gordon Hayward (15.4 ppg), Shelvin Mack (13.9 ppg) and Matt Howard (12.3 ppg) form one of the best trio of players this side of Durham.

The selection committee did them no favors (surprise, surprise) by matching them up with Conference USA regular season champion UTEP in the first round.

The Miners (26-6) dominated its somewhat unusually pedestrian conference, but lost to Houston in the league championship in surprising fashion.

If UTEP is able to pull off the upset, it will be because of guard Randy Culpeper. Culpeper scores 18 points per game, and has scored more than 30 points three times. In a win against East Carolina in February, Culpeper lit up the Pirates for 45 points.

The Miners just haven’t beaten anyone very impressive. Their record against teams in the NCAA Tournament is 3-4. Those wins were against a 16-seed, 12-seed and a 13-seed. It’s hard to say they can hang with Butler, but they just might.

Pick – Butler -3.5

(6) Xavier vs. (11) Minnesota

The Musketeers (24-8) finished tied for first place in the rugged Atlantic 10, a noteworthy accomplishment. That fact alone leads me to think they will succeed in the big dance. However, their record against tournament teams is subpar. In nine games against teams that made the field of 65, the Musketeers were 2-7.

Minnesota (21-13) turned a Big Ten Championship game run into an at-large bid, after nobody thought they had a chance to make the tournament a week and a half ago. In the conference tournament, they beat Purdue and Michigan State, who are four and five seeds respectively in the NCAA Tournament.

The Golden Gophers have proved they can beat the nation’s elite. They beat Ohio State, Wisconsin, and Illinois during the regular season. They have a solid backcourt with three good guards in Lawrence Westbrook, Blake Hoffarber and Devoe Joseph. Their balanced lineup allows them to play at a variety of speeds.

The Musketeers should win this game – they have the more talented team at least – but Minnesota has played better in games against better competition. This will be one of the closest games in the first round.

Pick – Xavier -1

Three-point play: February 7, 2010

Saturday was filled with statement games by some teams looking to earn respect on the national scene. It was a great day of basketball, and here are some thoughts for the day:

1. The loss to South Florida was a blessing in disguise for Georgetown

We all saw, or at least heard about, Georgetown’s thumping of Duke last Saturday in front of President Barack Obama. The 89-77 win against the Blue Devils was a statement win for both the Hoyas and for the Big East Conference.

Four days later, the lowly South Florida Bulls came into the nation’s capital and sent Georgetown a big fat wake-up call. By beating the Hoyas 72-64, it kept Georgetown’s egos in check, and sent the team a message that no opponent will lay down for them.

So all the Hoyas did was come out Saturday and embarrass the 2^nd-ranked Villanova Wildcats 103-90. Backcourt mates Austin Freeman and Jason Clark combined for 49 points in the win.

That makes it two Saturdays in a row where Georgetown has looked like a Final Four team. The upset loss on Wednesday night enabled John Thompson’s club to re-focus and understand just how big the target on their backs really is.

Look for the Hoyas to make the Big East a three-headed monster, including the Wildcats and Syracuse, down the stretch.

2. The Mountain West and the Atlantic 10 should get eight NCAA bids between them

Saturday was a banner day for the unknown teams in both the Atlantic 10 and Mountain West Conference. Dayton, UNLV and Richmond all hosted conference powers, and all three enjoyed convincing upset victories.

The Spiders (18-6, 7-2), who have already knocked off Mississippi State, Missouri and Florida this season, hosted No. 17 Temple and blew them away 71-54. Kevin Anderson, a junior guard from Duluth, Ga. is the engine for that team, averaging 18 points per game while only leaving the floor for three minutes per game.

Dayton took on Xavier as losers in three of its last five games. It was a virtual must-win game for the Flyers to keep their at-large hopes alive, and they destroyed the Musketeers 90-65, avenging a loss earlier in the season on the road. The Flyers need a strong finish down the stretch still; their only quality win out of conference was against Georgia Tech.

UNLV hosted 12^th ranked BYU and used a 56 point first half to cruise to victory. The Rebels (19-4, 7-2) are now in a three-way tie for first place in the Mountain West, and after a mid-season slump have rebounded to win seven of their last eight games.

3. Winning on the road is harder than getting Taylor Swift to sing well

In the AP Top 25 alone, seven underdogs won at home. The field of elite teams this year is diluted more than usual, and there are so many teams that could beat anyone.

The balanced standings in so many conferences will make for an interesting week of conference tournaments in early March. While so many of the highest ranked teams are dropping like flies when they hit the road, who knows what will happen when games move to neutral sites?

Fan bases for college basketball are as strong as ever, which makes for entertaining games. The emerging parity across the multiple-bid conferences are going to make this year’s conference tournaments some of the most intriguing ever. Enjoy the upsets while we can …only in college basketball…