Duke and Miami clash for unlikely ACC Semifinal Game

#1 Duke vs. #12 Miami, 1:30 p.m.

TV: Raycom Sports – blackout on ESPN2 in all ACC markets

Regular season results –Duke 81-74 at Miami on Feb. 17

Team records – Duke 27-5 (15-3) Miami 20-12 (6-12)

Projected starters –

Duke (ACC tourney stats)

G- Jon Scheyer (15 points, 3 assists)

G- Nolan Smith (15 points, 6 rebounds)

F- Kyle Singler (18 points, 11 rebounds)

F- Lance Thomas (2 points, 2 rebounds)

C- Brian Zoubek (2 points, 7 rebounds)

Miami (ACC tourney stats)

G- Durand Scott (11.5ppg, 3 apg)

G - Malcolm Grant (9 ppg, 4.5 apg)

G- James Dews (11.5 ppg, 6.5 rpg)

F- De’Quan Jones (14 ppg, 4 rpg)

F- Reggie Johnson (13.5 ppg, 8 rpg)

Team statistical comparison

DUKE		MIAMI
78.4	Points per game	72.4
39.2	Rebounds per game	36.3
38.7%	Three-point percentage	36.2%
38.7%	Free throw percentage	67.5%
61.3	Points allowed per game	64.3
14.2	Turnovers per game	11.1

Backcourt–

Duke relies on Jon Scheyer and Nolan Smith virtually exclusively. Neither player leaves the floor hardly ever. Scheyer is a smart offensive player who is a very good outside shooter, but has a good pull-up game against less physical defenders. Smith is arguably the most talented player on the Blue Devils’ roster. He is also a good shooter, but is at his best when he puts the ball on the floor and gets to the rim. He is very nifty around the rim and makes a lot of shots in traffic, usually getting fouled as well.

Miami freshman guard Scott broke out against Virginia Tech on Friday for 17 points, including 12 of the Hurricanes’ final 14. He is an aggressive guard who will stop at nothing to get to the rim. He is going to provide a difficult matchup for Scheyer, who is considerably less quick than Scott. Smith’s likely task will be to defend Malcolm Grant, who ironically is a less talented version of Smith. Grant is strong with the basketball; likes to penetrate but can also shoot from the outside consistently well. He tends to make poor decisions within the offense, though.

Advantage - Duke

Frontcourt–

Kyle Singler is te key to Duke’s success on any night. At 6’8’’, he has size comparable to many posts in the ACC, but is a true small forward. He handles the ball exceptionally well – he is a safe ball-handler. He tends to be very streaky; he may score 15 points in one half and only two the next.

Lance Thomas and Brian Zoubek are purely in the game for rebounding, and they do it well. Both are very active on the offensive glass, and are extremely disciplined players on defense. Zoubek will be a tough matchup for Miami’s Reggie Johnson, who at 295 lbs. makes a living off overpowering his opponent.

James Dews will have to attack Singler on offense and try to get him in foul trouble. Dews is also inconsistent, but when playing well, he is the Hurricanes’ best offensive threat.

Advantage - Duke

Bench –

Miami has played three men off the bench this week – Julian Gamble, Adrian Thomas, and Cyrus McGowan. All three are forwards, but they complete a solid eight-man rotation that is perfect for a team that plays predominantly zone. There is not a noticeable dropoff in production when any of those three are in the game. All three have started at one point this season.

Duke goes deep in the frontcourt, bringing in the Plumlee brothers Miles and Mason off the bench. Miles sees the most minutes off the bench. In the win over Virginia, the bench played 47 out of a possible 200 minutes. If the Blue Devils are going to win any game, it is because of their starting five.

Advantage - Miami

Coaching –

This hardly deserves discussion. Coach Krzyzewski has more ACC Tournament titles than Tiger Woods had affairs. Frank Haith has done a good job this week having his team focused to win basketball games, especially in the absence of leading scorer Dwayne Collins.

Advantage – Duke

Intangibles –

Miami has a heck of a lot more to play for than Duke. The Blue Devils are in the running for a number one seed in the NCAA Tournament, but if you ask Coach K, he’ll tell you he couldn’t care less where his team is seeded. Whether that is true or not, playing for a seed is considerably less intense than playing for merely a spot in the dance.

Miami has played with so much confidence this week despite being heavy underdogs, so don’t expect that trend to stop on Saturday. As long as Miami keeps it close early, they will hang around until the end.

Advantage - Miami

Prediction –

Duke 68, Miami 61

Duke survives, Miami continues magical run in ACC Quarterfinals

In the first game, Virginia presented Duke with a much stiffer challenge than they anticipated. The Cavaliers used an inspired defensive effort to contest virtually every Duke shot.

The Blue Devils struggled from the field, shooting nine-for-26 in the first half, which led to the score being tied at 27.

It was not until the second half that Duke committed to scoring inside. Kyle Singler scored 14 of his 18 points in the second half to lead the way.

Virginia hung around for quite awhile. The Cavaliers trailed 46-35 with just under 10 minutes to go, when they scored nine straight points to draw within two.

The run was capped by a three-pointer from Mustapha Farrakhan with 6:24 left, but the Cavaliers did not make another shot from the field again.

Jon Scheyer survived an abysmal shooting performance to score 15 points. His three-point play with 2:30 left put the final dagger in the heart of Virginia.

Sammy Zeglinski could not recapture the magic of Thursday’s first round win. After scoring 21 points against Boston College, Zeglinski was held scoreless by the Blue Devils.

Virginia played the best defense they could against Duke, but simply did not have enough playmakers on offense to keep up in the end.

Apparently nobody told Miami they were the last-place team entering this tournament, because they sure are not playing like it.

The Hurricanes’ zone defense proved to be a bugaboo for ACC leading scorer Malcolm Delaney, who scored only seven points and missed all eight shots behind the arc.

Miami freshman Durand Scott simply took the game over down the stretch. Scott scored 12 of Miami’s final 14 points to finish with 17.

Virginia Tech started off hot, mainly because of Dorenzo Hudson. Despite missing practice all week with a sore foot, Hudson erupted for 13 points in the first seven and a half minutes to send the Hokies to a 22-12 lead.

Miami recovered by halftime, trailing 37-35 at the break.

The Hokies received a boost in the second half from Jeff Allen, who finished with 18 points, 12 of which came in the second half. Allen was too quick on the interior for Miami’s bigs Julian Gamble and Reggie Johnson, making several drop steps and spin moves for easy looks at the rim.

The story of the game was Delaney’s struggles. Against the 2-3 zone of Miami, Delaney hardly ever penetrated the lane, and was ice cold from the field. Whether the Hokies play in the NCAA Tournament or the NIT, their opponents would be wise to take a page out of the Hurricanes’ playbook and show the Hokies a zone defense.

Miami also went deeper into their bench, playing eight guys. Seth Greenberg only played six players significant minutes, and it showed down the stretch. Despite the fact that the Hokies had a bye Thursday and Miami was playing its second game in as many days, it was the Hurricanes that had more energy in the final minutes.

Hudson disappeared after his scorching start, scoring only one point in the second half. The Hokies also shot 11-for-18 (61 percent) from the foul line, well below their season average.

It’s now onto the semifinals for Miami and Duke. The Hurricanes won’t have the same luxury of facing a poor shooting team on Saturday, as Duke shoots the three as well as anyone in America.

Still, Frank Haith’s guys are playing with too much heart this weekend to count them out of any game.