Three-point play: February 26, 2010

 1.  Why Kansas is the odds-on favorite to win it all

It has been more than a decade since college basketball crowned a champion that did not have an experienced point guard. Every team in the last ten years had one. Ty Lawson, Mario Chalmers, Taurean Green, Raymond Felton, Ben Gordon, Keith Duany, Steve Blake, Jason Williams, Mateen Cleaves.

You can bet on it every year, the last team standing will have a quality veteran point guard leading his team. That’s what separates the Kansas Jayhawks from the rest of the top teams in the country this season.

Sherron Collins has been magnificent in 2009-10, leading the Jayhawks in scoring, assists, and free throw percentage. On a supremely talented team with more depth than anyone else in America, Collins has shined above the rest.

The rest of the favorites to make the Final Four all have talented point guards, but they are all inexperienced. John Wall at Kentucky is at the forefront of this argument, but also Brandon Triche at Syracuse, and Truck Bryant at West Virginia.

Some of the top teams with veteran point guards are Duke (Jon Scheyer) – see previous posts for why they won’t make it all the way – Villanova (Scottie Reynolds/Corey Fisher), and Kansas State (Jacob Pullen).

None of those teams are as talented as the Jayhawks are across the board, which is why I’m starting to lean towards Kansas as my early championship pick.

2.    Purdue is royally screwed

When Robbie Hummel went tumbling to the floor in the first half Purdue’s win over Minnesota Wednesday night, so did any hope of a Final Four run for the Boilermakers.

All five of Purdue’s starters average at least 27 minutes per game.

The bench player with the most playing time is Kelsey Barlow with 15.9 minutes per game.

The Boilermakers have no depth whatsoever, and they surely couldn’t afford to lose its best player for the season. Of course, no team wants to lose its star, but when head coach Matt Painter clearly has no solid options to go to off the bench, Purdue is in trouble.

With Hummel in the lineup, the Boilermakers had a good shot at making a run to the Elite Eight, or even the Final Four. Without him, I’ll be shocked if they make it to the Sweet 16.

3.    Game to watch Saturday: (8) Villanova at (4) Syracuse

The Orange need a win Saturday and one more to clinch an outright Big East championship. As if they needed any more motivation in a top-ten conference battle at home in prime time on national television.

Syracuse has won two straight games after its surprising loss to Louisville on Valentine’s Day.

Villanova enters the game in a much bigger rut than the Orange. After starting the Big East season 9-0, the Wildcats are 3-3 since, including consecutive losses last week to Connecticut and at Pittsburgh.

If the ‘Cuse pull off this win tomorrow night, it would be their sixth against a team ranked in the top 15 at the time of the game this season.

This is a pivotal game for Villanova, because its final two games are not easy. The Wildcats travel to Cincinnati and host West Virginia next week.

This could also be one final bout for conference player of the year honors. There are several players in the Big East vying for the honor, but the two favorites have to be Wesley Johnson from Syracuse and Scottie Reynolds at ‘Nova. Johnson averages 16 points and nine rebounds this season to lead the Orange, while Reynolds has put an outstanding cap on an illustrious career, scoring 19 points per game for the Wildcats.

If the Orange win, it could go a long way in making their case for a number one seed in the NCAA Tournament. If the Wildcats win, it will ease the pain of their recent struggles, and give them some momentum heading into the difficult final week of their regular season.

Three Point Play: February 16, 2010

1. North Carolina should still make the NIT, and Ed Davis’ injury helps their case

The defending national champion Tar Heels were left for dead after losing seven of eight games and four straight. Following the 64-54 loss to Duke, the team announced that Ed Davis would be out for the season with a broken wrist. His loss seemed to spell doom for the struggling Heels. Instead, UNC played perhaps its best game in weeks in a win over North Carolina State on Saturday.

The absence of Davis actually may have helped the Tar Heels’ hopes. Against the Wolfpack, John Henson was able to play his natural position of power forward, and the team’s offense played much more fluently. Davis commanded the ball too much while producing an insufficient amount of effort that actually hindered the team’s production.

With six games left, UNC needs to win two more in order to be eligible for the NIT. The most winnable games in that span are at Boston College on Feb. 20, and Miami at home on Mar. 2. The other games include trips to Georgia Tech, Wake Forest, Duke and a home game with Florida State. Maybe with the improved outlook on offense, the Heels might have a chance.

2. Game of the week: Purdue at Ohio State, Wednesday 6:30 ET

With the recent slide Michigan State is on in conference play, this is a pivotal game involving two of the Big Ten’s best teams. The Boilermakers have not lost in a month, and are led by the dynamic trio of E’Twaun Moore, Robbie Hummel, and JaJuan Johnson. The Buckeyes enter the game on a six-game winning streak; they also defeated Purdue in West Lafayette earlier this season 70-66 in one of the best games this season.

Evan Turner returned from a serious back injury to play in the first Purdue game, and delivered a memorable performance. The national player of the year candidate scored 23 of his 32 points in the second half to help erase a 12-point halftime deficit. It was a complete turnaround from the first half, when Robbie Hummel scored 29 of his game-high 35 points. He also made eight three-pointers in the game, tying a school record.

The Buckeyes sit at 10-3 in Big 10 play, while Purdue is only a half game behind them at 9-3. A win in this game would put that team in prime position to win the regular season conference championship. Both teams are red-hot coming into the game, and if it turns out anything like last month’s tilt, it should be an exciting match-up.

3. Whatever happened to William and Mary?

Remember earlier this season, when the Tribe, picked to finish at the bottom of the Colonial Athletic Association, were knocking off ACC teams like they were Duke? That is a distant memory now, as they sit in fourth place in the CAA at 10-5 in the conference.

The Tribe currently hold victories over Richmond, Wake Forest, Radford, and Maryland to their name, and as of the beginning of January they looked to be a bona fide NCAA tournament team. Instead, they lost four of five games starting Jan. 20 and took themselves out of consideration for an at-large bid.

They have righted the ship to some extent by winning their last three games but the damage has already been made. The best they can hope for at this point is to win the CAA Tournament and finish the season strong, earning at best a 12 seed in March.