The Race to Greensboro – Breaking down the ACC Tournament chase

Starting today, I will take a look at each conference and handicap what each team needs to do between now and selection Sunday. First off, the Atlantic Coast Conference.

 

Duke (23-4, 11-2)

NCAA Tournament chances: lock

 

The Blue Devils lead the ACC by a game and a half over Maryland, and have all but wrapped up the regular season championship. That being said, Duke is far from flawless, and is not a shoo-in to win the conference tournament.

No team in the country has a trio as talented as Duke’s Kyle Singler, Jon Scheyer and Nolan Smith. All three players bring different but valuable assets to the table and make stopping Duke a living hell for opponents.

The worst news for Mike Krzyzewski’s team is they cannot play their tournament games at home. Each of Duke’s four losses has come on the road, and they have a much tougher time making shots away from Cameron Indoor Stadium.

 

Best-case scenario: ACC Championship/Final Four

Worst-case scenario: ACC Quarterfinals/NCAA first round

Likely scenario: ACC Championship/Sweet Sixteen

 

Maryland (19-7, 9-3)

NCAA Tournament chances: very likely

 

The Terrapins have flown somewhat under the radar this season, but with two weeks left in the regular season, they are in sole possession of second place in the ACC.

Quite frankly, Gary Williams’ team has been one arguable the most dominate team in the conference.  In its nine conference wins, Maryland has outscored its opponents by an average of 14 points per game. When they come to play, the Terps leave no doubt.

The biggest concern for Maryland’s NCAA Tournament hopes is their lack of a quality non-conference victory. The best win in that category was over Indiana, which is hardly anything to brag about.

 

Best-case scenario: ACC Championship/Sweet Sixteen

Worst-case scenario: ACC Quarterfinals/NIT

Likely scenario: ACC Semifinals/NCAA 2^nd round

Virginia Tech (21-5, 8-4)

NCAA Tournament chances: somewhat probable

 

The Hokies could have all but solidified a spot in the NCAA tournament with a win at Duke Sunday night. Instead, Tech sits in third place in the ACC with several difficult games remaining.

Seth Greenberg has done a magnificent job coaching this team. Through 14 games at home, the Hokies have yet to lose once. The Feb. 27 date with Maryland in Blacksburg can be circled as a must-win for the Hokies, if they want to lock up a tournament spot before the ACC tournament begins.

With one of the worst non-conference schedules in America, Tech needs to finish at least 10-6 in the ACC to feel comfortable heading into selection Sunday.

 

Best-case scenario: ACC Championship/Sweet Sixteen

Worst-case scenario: ACC Quarterfinals/NIT

Likely scenario: ACC Finals/NCAA Second Round

 

Wake Forest (18-7, 8-5)

NCAA Tournament chances: somewhat probable

 

Last week, the Deacons were a comfortable lock for the NCAA Tournament, until they lost two games in a row.

Wake has strong non-conference victories, including ones over Gonzaga, Xavier and Richmond. Against the stronger opponents in the ACC, though, the Demon Deacons have struggled.

They have lost at Miami, at Duke, at Georgia Tech, at Virginia Tech, and at North Carolina State. Their only road win in the ACC came against North Carolina on Jan. 20.

Their struggles away from home raise a big red flag as far as their tournament prospects. Then again, not too many teams have found success on the road in this conference.

 

Best-case scenario: ACC Championship/Sweet Sixteen

Worst-case scenario: ACC Quarterfinals/NIT

Likely scenario: ACC Quarterfinals/NCAA First Round

 

Clemson (19-7, 7-5)

NCAA Tournament Chances: Bubble

The Tigers sit on the bubble at this point, and their outlook is rough. Three of their last four games are on the road, and they are all against strong teams in Maryland, Florida State and Wake Forest.

After losing at Virginia Tech on Feb. 6, Clemson has won three straight games. 

Realistically, the Tigers need to win at least two games in their final four, and a game in the ACC tournament to make the big dance.

 

Best-case scenario: ACC Semifinals/NCAA second round

Worst-case scenario: ACC first round/NIT

Likely scenario: ACC quarterfinals/NIT

 

Florida State (19-7, 7-5)

NCAA Tournament chances: Bubble

 

The Seminoles sit in a similar boat as Clemson for the time being, but with a much easier line of games down the stretch.

The ‘Noles’ final two road games are against North Carolina and Miami, two of the weaker teams in the conference.

Leonard Hamilton’s team is lacking a big-time scorer a la Toney Douglass or Al Thornton. If they had a better backcourt, FSU might be the best team in the conference.

With such great size inside, Florida State could give teams trouble in postseason play.

 

Best-case scenario: ACC Semifinals/NCAA first round

Worst-case scenario: ACC First round/NIT

Likely scenario: ACC Semifinals/NCAA first round

 

Georgia Tech (18-9, 6-7)

NCAA Tournament Chances: barely on the bubble

 

The Yellow Jackets are one of the more inconsistent, underachieving teams in the nation.

They are 2-4 in their last six games, but two of their final three games are at home. Derrick Favors and Gani Lawal are both All-ACC candidates, but there have been many disappointing performances from the Jackets this season.

To make the NCAA Tournament, Paul Hewitt’s squad must win two of its final three regular season games and make it to the ACC semifinals.

 

Best-case scenario: ACC Semifinals/NCAA first round

Worst-case scenario: ACC First round/NIT

Likely scenario: ACC Quarterfinals/NIT

 

Virginia (14-11, 5-7)

NCAA Tournament chances: very unlikely

Remember when the Cavaliers were in first place in the ACC? After a surprisingly hot start in conference play, the Wahoos have fallen on hard times down the stretch.

Virginia has lost five straight games, and it’s not crazy to think that the Cavs could go from 5-2 to 5-11 or 6-10 by season’s end.

If the Cavaliers want to make a shocking run to the NCAA tournament, they would need to win out in their final four games and probably make the finals of the conference tournament.

 

Boston College (13-13, 4-8)

NCAA Tournament chances: only with an automatic bid

Early season losses to Maine and Harvard spelled doom for the Eagles’ season. Other than a win against Clemson at home on Jan. 26, there are no wins to speak about for Boston College.

The Eagles need to win three more games to be eligible for the NIT. That is very possible, with games against Virginia and North Carolina State left in the regular season. That means they would only have to win one ACC Tournament game should they beat the Cavs and Wolfpack.

 

Best-case scenario: ACC Quarterfinals/NIT

Worst-case scenario: ACC first round/CBI

Likely scenario: ACC first round/CBI

 

North Carolina (14-13, 3-9)

NCAA Tournament chances: only with an automatic bid

The Tar Heels have fallen so far from the top-10 ranked team from early January that only a tournament championship would earn them an NCAA bid.

The scary thing about the Heels is, even if they enter the conference tournament as the 11^th seed, they are talented enough to make a miraculous run. 

Is that likely? Yeah, and Matt Collette is a humble gentleman. Still, Carolina could salvage a forgettable season with at least a couple good wins late in the year.

 

Best-case scenario: ACC Semifinals/NCAA First Round

Worst-case scenario: ACC first round/CBI

Likely scenario: ACC first round/CBI

North Carolina State (15-13, 3-10)

NCAA Tournament Chances: only with an automatic bid

Over the course of the season, the Wolfpack have been the worst team in the ACC, but they have had a couple bright moments.

The 88-74 win over Duke gave State fans hope, but since that game, the Pack have lost seven of eight games. On Saturday they may have spoiled Wake Forest’s season with a 68-54 win at home.

 

Even with the select impressive victories, the Wolfpack have little hope to make it to the second day of the ACC Tournament still alive.

 

Best-case scenario: ACC quarterfinals/CBI

Worst-case scenario: ACC first round/CBI

Likely scenario: ACC first round/CBI

2010 ACC Schedule – Team-by-team Reaction

On Thursday, the ACC released its 2010 football schedule. There are some notable out of conference games to speak of, and there will be some tough stretches for the favorites in the league. Here is an early breakdown of the 2010 slate for each team.

Boston College:

Toughest non-conference game – Oct. 2 vs. Notre Dame

Toughest conference games – Sept. 25 vs. Virginia Tech, Oct. 16 at Florida State

Easiest FBS game – Nov. 27 at Syracuse

Schedule Strength – C+

Clemson:

Toughest non-conference game – Sept. 18 at Auburn

Toughest conference games – Oct. 2 vs. Miami, Nov. 13 at Florida State

Easiest FBS game – Sept. 4 vs. North Texas

Schedule Strength – B+

Florida State

Toughest non-conference game – Sept. 11 at Oklahoma

Toughest conference games – Oct. 9 at Miami, Nov. 6 vs. UNC

Easiest FBS game – Sept. 18 vs. BYU

Schedule Strength – A

Maryland

Toughest non-conference game – Sept. 18 at West Virginia

Toughest conference games – Nov. 6 at Miami, Nov. 20 vs. Florida State

Easiest FBS game – Sept. 25 vs. FIU

Schedule Strength – C+

NC State

Toughest non-conference game – Sept. 16 (Thurs.) vs. Cincinnati

Toughest conference games – Oct. 2 vs. Virginia Tech, Oct. 28 (Thurs.) vs. Florida State

Easiest FBS game – Sept. 11 at Central Florida

Schedule Strength – A-

Wake Forest

Toughest non-conference game – Sept. 18 at Stanford

Toughest conference games – Sept. 25 at Florida State, Oct. 16 at Virginia Tech

Easiest FBS game – Nov. 27 at Vanderbilt

Schedule Strength – B

Duke

Toughest non-conference game – Sept. 18 vs. Alabama

Toughest conference games- Oct. 23 at Virginia Tech, Nov. 27 vs. Virginia Tech

Easiest FBS game – Sept. 25 vs. Army

Schedule Strength – B+

Georgia Tech

Toughest non-conference game – Nov. 27 at Georgia

Toughest conference games- Nov. 4 (Thurs.) at Virginia Tech, Nov. 13 vs. Miami

Easiest FBS game – Oct. 16 vs. Middle Tennessee

Schedule Strength – B-

Miami

Toughest non-conference game – Sept. 11 at Ohio State

Toughest conference games- Nov. 20 vs. Virginia Tech, Oct. 2 at Clemson

Easiest FBS game – Nov. 27 at South Florida

Schedule Strength – A+

North Carolina

Toughest non-conference game – Sept. 4 vs. LSU (In Atlanta)

Toughest conference games- Oct. 23 at Miami, Nov. 6 at Florida State

Easiest FBS game – Oct. 2 vs. East Carolina

Schedule Strength – B+

Virginia

Toughest non-conference game – Sept. 11 at USC

Toughest conference games- Nov. 27 at Virginia Tech, Oct. 30 vs. Miami

Easiest FBS game – Oct. 23 vs. Eastern Michigan

Schedule Strength – C

Virginia Tech

Toughest non-conference game – Sept. 6 (Mon.) vs. Boise State (In Washington D.C.)

Toughest conference games – Nov. 20 at Miami, Nov. 13 at UNC

Easiest FBS game – Oct. 9 vs. Central Michigan

Schedule Strength – B+

Hokies drag Pack around in blowout win

It only took a single play in Virginia Tech’s 38-10 win over North Carolina State Saturday night to show just how much separates the two programs.

Leading 24-10 midway through the third quarter, freshman running back Ryan Williams took the ball off the left side, where the Pack’s Earl Wolff grabbed him from behind.

That did not stop Wiliams, though, who carried Wolff 12 yards and into the end zone for his career-best fourth touchdown of the game.

For the eighth time this season, Williams put the Hokies on his back (a la Wolff) and carried them to a big victory. He finished the day with 120 yards on 32 carries.

The Wolfpack sputtered out of the gate, fumbling on three of its first four offensive plays, losing two of them. Both turnovers led to Tech scores, giving the Hokies a 10-0 lead halfway through the first quarter.

Tyrod Taylor continued his superb play against the weaker defenses of the ACC, completing 9-of-17 passes for 197 yards and a touchdown.

The Hokies have been an episode of Wiley Coyote and the Road Runner all season long. Everyone knows that the Road Runner escapes Wiley’s evil plan at the end of every episode. When the Hokies have played the worst of the ACC, they have cleaned house in 20-point plus beat downs.

It’s the same old song and dance when those cellar-dwellers face the Hokies. Williams is nearly impossible to tackle, Taylor looks like a poised quarterback, and the defense is a run-stuffing machine.

Unfortunately for Tech, the latter two only seem to occur against the bad teams.

Marshall, Boston College, Maryland, and State have made Tech look like a top-10 team. Where was the poised Taylor on a Thursday night in Blacksburg against North Carolina? Where was that run-stuffing defense when Georgia Tech gauged the Hokies for nearly 300 yards on the ground?

Tech has all the talent they need on both sides of the football to be sitting at 10-1 right now. It’s the motivation or focus they lack. When facing the mid-level to upper-echelon teams in the conference, Tech has failed to step up to the challenge, save for a rain-soaked evening against Miami.

Next week, Tech will probably walk into Scott Stadium and let Williams run wild against a beleaguered Cavalier defense for 120-plus yards and a few scores to finish the season 9-3.

This program has been missing excitement on game days.  Williams has been the saving grace this season, but he is the first player to electrify Lane Stadium in three years.

Where are guys like Eddie Royal, Xavier Adibi, Jimmy Williams, Bryan Randall, DeAngelo Hall, Jeff King, or Chris Ellis?

Those players saw Virginia Tech through the most exciting years of the program, when Lane Stadium truly was one of the most five feared stadiums in America. While its still up there in the ranks of vaunted venues, the feeling Lane carried through every game five years ago doesn’t seem to be there now.

It needs to come from the motivation of the players; to buckle up and drive right through the UNC’s of the world. They need to bring that energy back to Lane. Starting with the final minute of the Nebraska game and running through the Miami game, it seemed that Lane was once again the “Terror Dome.”

As this season’s home schedule comes to an end, here’s hoping for a rejuvenated program next year with more than just another 10-win season as the result.