The Race to Greensboro – Breaking down the ACC Tournament chase

Starting today, I will take a look at each conference and handicap what each team needs to do between now and selection Sunday. First off, the Atlantic Coast Conference.

 

Duke (23-4, 11-2)

NCAA Tournament chances: lock

 

The Blue Devils lead the ACC by a game and a half over Maryland, and have all but wrapped up the regular season championship. That being said, Duke is far from flawless, and is not a shoo-in to win the conference tournament.

No team in the country has a trio as talented as Duke’s Kyle Singler, Jon Scheyer and Nolan Smith. All three players bring different but valuable assets to the table and make stopping Duke a living hell for opponents.

The worst news for Mike Krzyzewski’s team is they cannot play their tournament games at home. Each of Duke’s four losses has come on the road, and they have a much tougher time making shots away from Cameron Indoor Stadium.

 

Best-case scenario: ACC Championship/Final Four

Worst-case scenario: ACC Quarterfinals/NCAA first round

Likely scenario: ACC Championship/Sweet Sixteen

 

Maryland (19-7, 9-3)

NCAA Tournament chances: very likely

 

The Terrapins have flown somewhat under the radar this season, but with two weeks left in the regular season, they are in sole possession of second place in the ACC.

Quite frankly, Gary Williams’ team has been one arguable the most dominate team in the conference.  In its nine conference wins, Maryland has outscored its opponents by an average of 14 points per game. When they come to play, the Terps leave no doubt.

The biggest concern for Maryland’s NCAA Tournament hopes is their lack of a quality non-conference victory. The best win in that category was over Indiana, which is hardly anything to brag about.

 

Best-case scenario: ACC Championship/Sweet Sixteen

Worst-case scenario: ACC Quarterfinals/NIT

Likely scenario: ACC Semifinals/NCAA 2^nd round

Virginia Tech (21-5, 8-4)

NCAA Tournament chances: somewhat probable

 

The Hokies could have all but solidified a spot in the NCAA tournament with a win at Duke Sunday night. Instead, Tech sits in third place in the ACC with several difficult games remaining.

Seth Greenberg has done a magnificent job coaching this team. Through 14 games at home, the Hokies have yet to lose once. The Feb. 27 date with Maryland in Blacksburg can be circled as a must-win for the Hokies, if they want to lock up a tournament spot before the ACC tournament begins.

With one of the worst non-conference schedules in America, Tech needs to finish at least 10-6 in the ACC to feel comfortable heading into selection Sunday.

 

Best-case scenario: ACC Championship/Sweet Sixteen

Worst-case scenario: ACC Quarterfinals/NIT

Likely scenario: ACC Finals/NCAA Second Round

 

Wake Forest (18-7, 8-5)

NCAA Tournament chances: somewhat probable

 

Last week, the Deacons were a comfortable lock for the NCAA Tournament, until they lost two games in a row.

Wake has strong non-conference victories, including ones over Gonzaga, Xavier and Richmond. Against the stronger opponents in the ACC, though, the Demon Deacons have struggled.

They have lost at Miami, at Duke, at Georgia Tech, at Virginia Tech, and at North Carolina State. Their only road win in the ACC came against North Carolina on Jan. 20.

Their struggles away from home raise a big red flag as far as their tournament prospects. Then again, not too many teams have found success on the road in this conference.

 

Best-case scenario: ACC Championship/Sweet Sixteen

Worst-case scenario: ACC Quarterfinals/NIT

Likely scenario: ACC Quarterfinals/NCAA First Round

 

Clemson (19-7, 7-5)

NCAA Tournament Chances: Bubble

The Tigers sit on the bubble at this point, and their outlook is rough. Three of their last four games are on the road, and they are all against strong teams in Maryland, Florida State and Wake Forest.

After losing at Virginia Tech on Feb. 6, Clemson has won three straight games. 

Realistically, the Tigers need to win at least two games in their final four, and a game in the ACC tournament to make the big dance.

 

Best-case scenario: ACC Semifinals/NCAA second round

Worst-case scenario: ACC first round/NIT

Likely scenario: ACC quarterfinals/NIT

 

Florida State (19-7, 7-5)

NCAA Tournament chances: Bubble

 

The Seminoles sit in a similar boat as Clemson for the time being, but with a much easier line of games down the stretch.

The ‘Noles’ final two road games are against North Carolina and Miami, two of the weaker teams in the conference.

Leonard Hamilton’s team is lacking a big-time scorer a la Toney Douglass or Al Thornton. If they had a better backcourt, FSU might be the best team in the conference.

With such great size inside, Florida State could give teams trouble in postseason play.

 

Best-case scenario: ACC Semifinals/NCAA first round

Worst-case scenario: ACC First round/NIT

Likely scenario: ACC Semifinals/NCAA first round

 

Georgia Tech (18-9, 6-7)

NCAA Tournament Chances: barely on the bubble

 

The Yellow Jackets are one of the more inconsistent, underachieving teams in the nation.

They are 2-4 in their last six games, but two of their final three games are at home. Derrick Favors and Gani Lawal are both All-ACC candidates, but there have been many disappointing performances from the Jackets this season.

To make the NCAA Tournament, Paul Hewitt’s squad must win two of its final three regular season games and make it to the ACC semifinals.

 

Best-case scenario: ACC Semifinals/NCAA first round

Worst-case scenario: ACC First round/NIT

Likely scenario: ACC Quarterfinals/NIT

 

Virginia (14-11, 5-7)

NCAA Tournament chances: very unlikely

Remember when the Cavaliers were in first place in the ACC? After a surprisingly hot start in conference play, the Wahoos have fallen on hard times down the stretch.

Virginia has lost five straight games, and it’s not crazy to think that the Cavs could go from 5-2 to 5-11 or 6-10 by season’s end.

If the Cavaliers want to make a shocking run to the NCAA tournament, they would need to win out in their final four games and probably make the finals of the conference tournament.

 

Boston College (13-13, 4-8)

NCAA Tournament chances: only with an automatic bid

Early season losses to Maine and Harvard spelled doom for the Eagles’ season. Other than a win against Clemson at home on Jan. 26, there are no wins to speak about for Boston College.

The Eagles need to win three more games to be eligible for the NIT. That is very possible, with games against Virginia and North Carolina State left in the regular season. That means they would only have to win one ACC Tournament game should they beat the Cavs and Wolfpack.

 

Best-case scenario: ACC Quarterfinals/NIT

Worst-case scenario: ACC first round/CBI

Likely scenario: ACC first round/CBI

 

North Carolina (14-13, 3-9)

NCAA Tournament chances: only with an automatic bid

The Tar Heels have fallen so far from the top-10 ranked team from early January that only a tournament championship would earn them an NCAA bid.

The scary thing about the Heels is, even if they enter the conference tournament as the 11^th seed, they are talented enough to make a miraculous run. 

Is that likely? Yeah, and Matt Collette is a humble gentleman. Still, Carolina could salvage a forgettable season with at least a couple good wins late in the year.

 

Best-case scenario: ACC Semifinals/NCAA First Round

Worst-case scenario: ACC first round/CBI

Likely scenario: ACC first round/CBI

North Carolina State (15-13, 3-10)

NCAA Tournament Chances: only with an automatic bid

Over the course of the season, the Wolfpack have been the worst team in the ACC, but they have had a couple bright moments.

The 88-74 win over Duke gave State fans hope, but since that game, the Pack have lost seven of eight games. On Saturday they may have spoiled Wake Forest’s season with a 68-54 win at home.

 

Even with the select impressive victories, the Wolfpack have little hope to make it to the second day of the ACC Tournament still alive.

 

Best-case scenario: ACC quarterfinals/CBI

Worst-case scenario: ACC first round/CBI

Likely scenario: ACC first round/CBI

2010 ACC Schedule – Team-by-team Reaction

On Thursday, the ACC released its 2010 football schedule. There are some notable out of conference games to speak of, and there will be some tough stretches for the favorites in the league. Here is an early breakdown of the 2010 slate for each team.

Boston College:

Toughest non-conference game – Oct. 2 vs. Notre Dame

Toughest conference games – Sept. 25 vs. Virginia Tech, Oct. 16 at Florida State

Easiest FBS game – Nov. 27 at Syracuse

Schedule Strength – C+

Clemson:

Toughest non-conference game – Sept. 18 at Auburn

Toughest conference games – Oct. 2 vs. Miami, Nov. 13 at Florida State

Easiest FBS game – Sept. 4 vs. North Texas

Schedule Strength – B+

Florida State

Toughest non-conference game – Sept. 11 at Oklahoma

Toughest conference games – Oct. 9 at Miami, Nov. 6 vs. UNC

Easiest FBS game – Sept. 18 vs. BYU

Schedule Strength – A

Maryland

Toughest non-conference game – Sept. 18 at West Virginia

Toughest conference games – Nov. 6 at Miami, Nov. 20 vs. Florida State

Easiest FBS game – Sept. 25 vs. FIU

Schedule Strength – C+

NC State

Toughest non-conference game – Sept. 16 (Thurs.) vs. Cincinnati

Toughest conference games – Oct. 2 vs. Virginia Tech, Oct. 28 (Thurs.) vs. Florida State

Easiest FBS game – Sept. 11 at Central Florida

Schedule Strength – A-

Wake Forest

Toughest non-conference game – Sept. 18 at Stanford

Toughest conference games – Sept. 25 at Florida State, Oct. 16 at Virginia Tech

Easiest FBS game – Nov. 27 at Vanderbilt

Schedule Strength – B

Duke

Toughest non-conference game – Sept. 18 vs. Alabama

Toughest conference games- Oct. 23 at Virginia Tech, Nov. 27 vs. Virginia Tech

Easiest FBS game – Sept. 25 vs. Army

Schedule Strength – B+

Georgia Tech

Toughest non-conference game – Nov. 27 at Georgia

Toughest conference games- Nov. 4 (Thurs.) at Virginia Tech, Nov. 13 vs. Miami

Easiest FBS game – Oct. 16 vs. Middle Tennessee

Schedule Strength – B-

Miami

Toughest non-conference game – Sept. 11 at Ohio State

Toughest conference games- Nov. 20 vs. Virginia Tech, Oct. 2 at Clemson

Easiest FBS game – Nov. 27 at South Florida

Schedule Strength – A+

North Carolina

Toughest non-conference game – Sept. 4 vs. LSU (In Atlanta)

Toughest conference games- Oct. 23 at Miami, Nov. 6 at Florida State

Easiest FBS game – Oct. 2 vs. East Carolina

Schedule Strength – B+

Virginia

Toughest non-conference game – Sept. 11 at USC

Toughest conference games- Nov. 27 at Virginia Tech, Oct. 30 vs. Miami

Easiest FBS game – Oct. 23 vs. Eastern Michigan

Schedule Strength – C

Virginia Tech

Toughest non-conference game – Sept. 6 (Mon.) vs. Boise State (In Washington D.C.)

Toughest conference games – Nov. 20 at Miami, Nov. 13 at UNC

Easiest FBS game – Oct. 9 vs. Central Michigan

Schedule Strength – B+

On the Docket - Gaylord Hotels Music City Bowl: Clemson (8-5) vs. Kentucky (7-5)

Music City Bowl: Clemson (8-5) vs. Kentucky (7-5)

Synopsis: This is far from where the Tigers would like to be playing, and coach Dabo Swinney has been very vocal about it. Clemson rode a six-game winning streak to a division title, before losing its final two games of the season. They were one minute away from winning the ACC championship, but instead allowed a late touchdown by Georgia Tech to hand the Jackets the title.

Kentucky is one of several SEC teams with a 7-5 record, but the Wildcats took advantage of weaker opponents for much of the season. They did salvage two mildly impressive victories against Georgia and Auburn, but besides that they struggled to keep up with better competition.

Player to watch: C.J. Spiller. If you have not heard of the Tigers’ do-it-all running back before now, it’s time you start watching college football. Spiller is the best professional prospect at the running back position in the nation, and for good reason. In the ACC title game, he ran for a career-high 233 yards and four touchdowns. He does most of his damage in the return game however, with his 4.3 speed proving to be out of reach for many defenders.

Who has the edge? Clemson is clearly the more talented team in this game, but that is true much of the time the Tigers hit the field, yet they do not always win. Kentucky makes a habit of giving teams trouble in the postseason, and Clemson is devastated that they fell this far in the bowl selection process. That being said, the Wildcats have no answer for Spiller.

Prediction:

Clemson 27, Kentucky 21

Five teams with the most to lose

Here it is: the final Saturday of the 2009 regular season is upon us. With this final weekend come nail-biting rivalry matchups that pose the potential to alter the college football landscape.

On Saturday there is only one game featuring ranked teams, Utah at BYU.

Nevermind that factoid, ladies and gents; instead, be wary of the underdog adversaries chomping at the bit to ruin someone’s season.

Five teams will step on the field Saturday with little to gain on the national stage, but so much more to lose.

1.    LSU (vs. Arkansas, 7:00)

In a single two-minute span, the Tigers’ program toppled the first domino in a stack that has yet to cease falling yet. Les Miles has gone from the “Ice Man” of coaching to the “worst coach to ever win a national championship” in some circles.

If LSU beats Arkansas Saturday night, it’s business as usual for Tiger fans, but you can bet they’ll still be fuming over the circus that was the LSU sideline in the final seconds of the Tigers’ loss to Ole Miss last week.

If the Hogs knock off LSU, it will put the stamp on an official late-season choke job by Miles and his team. The man who two years ago was begged by the fan base to stay in Baton Rouge would be boiling in water hotter than a Cajun grill outside Tiger Stadium on a Saturday afternoon.

Although its highly unlikely that Miles’ job is on the line this weekend, you never know what a tough loss to the rival Hogs could stir up in the Bayou.

2.    Miami (vs. South Florida, 3:30)

Every time the Hurricanes seem to get back on track after a tough loss, they falter once more. After a tough loss at North Carolina, Miami rebounded with a strong finish to a 34-16 win over Duke.

Now Miami faces a tricky test in its final regular season contest. If all signs aren’t pointing straight towards a Hurricane flop, they’re leaning that way.

The game has little to no implications on Miami’s postseason fate.

This is South Florida’s first shot at Miami since 2005, and only the second meeting of the two ever. This is the first time the teams have gotten together since the Bulls’ emergence as a legitimate threat on the national stage.

The Bulls already knocked around Florida State in a 17-7 win in October, and are salivating at the chance to go 2-0 against the big boys in the state. Can you spell r-e-c-r-u-i-t-i-n-g t-o-o-l?

Basically, the Bulls have the world to gain from a win, while Miami has nothing. If Randy Shannon is worth the $2 million on his annual paychecks, he’ll find a way to motivate his team to reach its first nine-win season since 2005.

3.    Georgia Tech (vs. Georgia, 8:00)

Like Miami, the Yellow Jackets’ holiday destination won’t be decided by their game this weekend. For Tech, it’s about taking a tighter grip on the state of Georgia with another victory of the Bulldogs. Last year, it was Tech shocking the Bulldogs 45-42.

It may not be as much about what Tech would lose in this game, but more about what they would fail to gain.

Along with greater recruiting power in the area, the Jackets could force some turmoil in their rival’s program. Mark Richt is already on thin ice with Georgia boosters, and an embarrassing loss to the in-state rival Jackets is not exactly the remedy.

A big win by the Yellow Jackets on Saturday evening would make it even harder to remember how just two short years ago, the Bulldogs ruled everything in the Peach State, while Tech was a mere afterthought. All because a little old coach from the Naval Academy brought his antique offense to play with the big boys.

4.    Clemson (vs. South Carolina, 12:00)

This is a momentum game for the Tigers. South Carolina is a decided underdog at home, but a worthy opponent nonetheless. The Gamecocks are the type of team that will require a strong effort from Dabo Swinney’s squad to come out on top.

If Clemson manages to impress in a big rivalry win, they could very well go into Tampa next week and knock off Georgia Tech in the ACC Championship Game. The Tigers have been a team to ride momentum as far as possible for many years now, and 2009 is no different. They have caught fire at the right time; now it is simply of matter of how long they can keep burning.

A loss to the hated Gamecocks would be hard to recover from in a week’s time. Clemson needs one final confidence-booster before the conference title showdown next week. The only problem is a loss would be a confidence-demoralizer. It’s a must-win of the most unique kind this Saturday.

5.    Washington (vs. Washington State, 6:30)

Was it really two months ago when Washington was one play away from being 3-2 after playing Notre Dame? Instead, the Irish escaped with the overtime win over the Huskies. Washington rebounded the next week to beat Arizona 36-33, and have not tasted victory since.

Steve Sarkisian, once the taste of the town in Seattle, is now back to square one with his program. The Huskies sit at 3-7, 2-5 in the Pac-10 with two games to play. Three of their losses have come by a touchdown or less.

Right now, the Huskies are a clear example of a team that just does not know quite how to win yet, which is understandable, after last year’s 0-12 debacle.

As Sarkisian gets players more tuned to his style, and flat-out more talented, those close losses will turn into wins, and 3-7 will turn into 6-4, which will then turn into 8-2.

All of that being said, much of the optimism surrounding the Washington program remaining after this four-game skid would vanish with a loss to the pathetic Cougars.

Washington State has one of the worst defenses in America, and its hard to imagine them beating any team from a BCS conference. This is still an intrastate rivalry game, though, which means anything can happen.

If State stunned the Northwest with a win, it would bring Sarkisian and the Huskies crashing down to rock bottom. The nice thing is they are quite familiar there, but nobody can honestly say they saw it coming after the red-hot September they enjoyed.

Words of wisdom for Washington: save yourself the misery and take care of business Saturday afternoon.

The ACC, as told by Nickelodeon

In the mid 1990’s, Nickelodeon produced a show titled “Wild and Crazy Kids”. Who knew that those kids would one day play football in the Atlantic Coast Conference? Seems like the channel of choice for pre-teens of that decade is making its way into college football.

The ACC has been about as wild as it gets these days. For instance, the two divisions’ current leaders were in fourth place three weeks ago.

As we enter the season’s tenth week of games, there is still much to be decided in the conference race.

Georgia Tech has taken control of the Coastal Division with wins over Florida State, Virginia Tech and Virginia. In a few weeks’ time, the Jackets will in all likelihood be battling Duke in a battle for the division lead.

Let’s consider the possibilities. The teams that have given Georgia Tech the most trouble are those that “Dare” to throw the football. Jacory Harris ripped Tech’s secondary; the same secondary that a week earlier made Clemson’s freshman quarterback Kyle Parker look like Tom Brady in a second-half comeback.

Duke’s Thaddeus Lewis is the favorite to be named first-team all-ACC quarterback. That’s bad news for the Jackets, which also allowed Christian Ponder to throw for 359 yards against them. The Yellow Jackets clear weakness is quarterbacks with “Rocket Power” throwing arms.

Besides those two teams, everyone in the conference has at least two losses to ACC opponents. In a season this unpredictable, why can’t Duke make their way to Tampa?

On the other side of the conference, the Clemson Tigers have been “All That” in recent weeks. They beat Miami on the road in overtime a week after thumping Wake Forest 38-3.

The Tigers hit rock bottom when they were upset at Maryland on Oct. 3, giving the Terps their first win over an FBS team in 2009. Since then, C.J. Spiller has been unstoppable, and the rest of the offense has begun to “Figure it Out”, scoring 42.3 points per game.

The Tigers have arguably the fastest defense in the country, especially at defensive end. DaQuan Bowers and Ricky Sapp are both future first-round draft picks.

The talent has always been there for Clemson, but the chemistry and coaching were the unknown quantities. All the pieces are coming together at the right time, and Dabo Swinney might have just caught lightning in a bottle, leading Clemson down the path to the conference title.

Four weeks ago, Boston College came to Blacksburg prepared for a matchup that many thought could just be a championship game preview. The Eagles are still very much alive, though nobody knows how, while the Hokies are all but eliminated from contention with a month left to play.

It’s now a three-way race between Clemson, Georgia Tech and… sigh…Duke for the conference crown. Here’s saying a Blue Devil-Tiger matchup is forthcoming; you heard it here first.