Finding this year's surefire top 5 pick

Which draft slot is best?

In less than 24 hours, war rooms across the country will be jam packed with the anointed “greatest minds” in all of football, conglomerating to choose a player they think will alter the fortunes of their respective franchise.

More specifically, management in St. Louis, Detroit, Tampa Bay, Washington and Kansas City are in the prime slots to take a player that will rejuvenate such moribund enterprises as themselves.

Or are they?

By breaking down the top five picks from the past 10 drafts, not every top pick was created equally.

I’m on a mission to find out the perfect top five draft pick.

Every year, starting the day after the draft concludes, people begin looking for who will be next year’s Golden Boy franchise quarterback.

It’s quarterbacks that draw ESPN such high ratings to watch Chris Berman, Keyshawn Johnson and Mel Kiper, among others, talk about 40-yard dash times and “upside” for eight hours straight.

Some of those top-five quarterbacks include Joey Harrington, David Carr, Alex Smith and JaMarcus Russell.

Others include Philip Rivers, Eli Manning and Carson Palmer.

The reality of the matter is that 12 quarterbacks have been taken in the top five since 2000. Of those 12, seven have never made a pro bowl, and none have ever been named all-pro.

Only one has even played in a Super Bowl – Eli Manning, who won Super Bowl XLII with the Giants.

Most quarterbacks that get drafted highly typically sit on the bench at least half of their rookie season, if not the entire first year.

Coaches are scared to throw their $50 million investment into the fire too early and never see them blossom into stars. This thinking may not be all too far off.

Of the seven number one overall picks that were quarterbacks, only three have ever made a pro bowl, and just four are still starters in the league today.

The three that no longer start, all started games their rookie season. JaMarcus Russell, Alex Smith, and Michael Vick were forced to save their franchises in a hurry.

To be fair, Vick had quite a bit of early success, taking the Falcons to the playoffs twice before he turned into a jailbird.

Other teams may wish to take cornerstone tackle to protect a young quarterback.

All in all, it is a bit of a safer bet. Of the eight players taken in the top five since 2000, four have played in a Pro Bowl, and two have been named all-pro.

A couple picks have been home runs. Jake Long has made the Pro Bowl both years in the league, as has Joe Thomas in his three seasons. Chris Samuels made four Pro Bowls in his ten-year career.

The second overall pick in the draft is usually a good place to take non-skill players. In fact, no quarterback has gone number two since Donovan McNabb in 1999.

Only one player taken second overall has paid serious dividends, and that was Julius Peppers in 2002.

Other names under the “2^nd overall pick” category include Leonard Davis, Charles Rogers, Robert Gallery, and Reggie Bush (let’s face it- he had megastar written all over him, and it hasn’t happened).

If I had one piece of advice for general managers, it would be to stay the hell away from the fourth pick. That selection has produced zero all-pros, no rookie of the years, and only two pro bowl appearances since 2000.

The only good pick in that spot is Philip Rivers, who was traded from New York for Eli Manning on draft day.

Some (less than) notable names taken fourth include Peter Warrick, Justin Smith, Mike Williams, Dewayne Robertson and Cedric Benson.

Couple that trend with the fact that the traditionally pathetic drafters, the Washington Redskins, have that pick, and it could spell bad news for the nation’s capital.

The fifth pick has also been unforgiving, save for one future hall-of-famer.

LaDanian Tomlinson accounts for four of the six all-pro selections from fifth picks, and five of the nine all-pro selections.

Carnell Williams did earn Rookie of the Year honors with Tampa Bay in 2006.

Jamal Lewis also had a banner year when he topped the 2,000-yard mark in 2003.

Two of the highest-rated players in this year’s draft are defensive tackles. Ndamukong Suh of Nebraska and Oklahoma’s Gerald McCoy are expected to be both taken within the first four picks at worst.

Here are the names of the other three defensive tackles to go top-five in the last decade. Gerard Warren, Dewayne Robertson and Glenn Dorsey.

Dorsey is still young, but clearly using such a high pick on this position does not pay dividends.

Understandably, this draft class is relatively weak at the top, and there are not too many other options with the top picks other than Suh and McCoy, but this is a warning that neither may turn out as great as they were cracked up to be.

The money pick is lucky number three. Only three players have been taken third and not earned some sort of honors in their careers thus far.

Names in that group of third picks include Samuels, Andre Johnson, Larry Fitzgerald, Braylon Edwards, Vince Young, Joe Thomas and Matt Ryan.

Players picked first, second, fourth or fifth have accumulated 31 Pro Bowl appearances in their careers. The third pick has provided 17 appearances by itself in the past decade.

Though Johnson and Fitzgerald were both home runs at no. 3, taking wideouts this high is a risky business. The other receivers to go top five include Peter Warrick, Charles Rogers and Mike Williams among others.

Reflecting on all this list of 50 players, more than half of them struggled to live up to anywhere near expectations as pros.

The safest pick seems to be the third spot, and of all the positions traditionally selected early, offensive linemen have had the most success.

Using this logic, the best player to come out of this draft would be if the Buccaneers took Oklahoma State tackle Russell Okung with the third pick.

How likely is this? Not very, considering most everyone believes the Rams will take Sam Bradford, then the Lions will take Suh, leaving the Bucs to take McCoy.

However, a little look back at recent history could give the Bucs some greater insight on how to get a much greater return on a franchise-altering decision.

Snyder needs specific to-do list to turn ‘Skins around

To all the Redskins fans in the world, I know what you were thinking last weekend. As you watched the Wild Card Playoffs unfold, all you wanted was to be a part of it.

Dan Snyder was thinking the same thing. The Redskins owner is widely known as one of the biggest reasons the team has not made the playoffs very often during his tenure. It is not for a lack of trying, though. Snyder simply has made several failed attempts at building a dominant franchise.

And that’s the problem: he’s too impatient. Building a Super Bowl-caliber team takes more than one season. Several pieces have to come together to craft that perfect mold that leads to a winning atmosphere.

His first mistake was hiring Mike Shanahan. He brought in the former Super Bowl-winning coach for a hefty price, $35 million over five years. That’s championship money. Unfortunately, the Redskins are not a championship team right now.

A smarter idea would have been to bring in a veteran coach at a cheaper cost for fewer years. Someone like Marty Schottenheimer, who coached in Washington before, or Herm Edwards, would have been great coaches to run a disciplined program while the franchise rebuilds.

Those coaches would have been on the three-year plan at most, but would have been under less pressure to win immediately. With Shanahan, the expectations are as unrealistic as ever in Washington, and that’s saying something.

The first thing Washington needs to do in the offseason is retain Jason Campbell. The much-maligned quarterback has thrived in catastrophic conditions for an NFL quarterback. Playing for his fifth offensive coordinator in six seasons, Campbell finished just above the middle of the pack in passing efficiency, yards, and completion percentage.

He also dealt with an offensive line decimated by injuries. Stephon Heyer, Mike Williams, and Chris Samuels made up a MASH unit at tackle during the season, making life tough on Campbell.

He also was one of the most affected victims of the turmoil with coach Jim Zorn’s relationship with the franchise. After he was stripped of play-calling duties in week two, the Redskins season was virtually written off as a failed one, leaving Campbell in a no-win situation as a quarterback with an expiring contract.

If a younger, healthier line is acquired this off-season, Campbell can provide everything the Redskins need from the quarterback position at this time.

The rumors that the front office is enamored with Sam Bradford could be dynamite for the franchise. The former Oklahoma quarterback is coming off a serious shoulder injury for one, and is a big risk for any team that is willing to take him in the early first round. Washington would be setting its franchise back at least two years if they took Bradford at quarterback, or any other player at that position in the first round.

If they want to develop a young player to eventually replace Campbell, Colt McCoy could still be available in the second round. Sean Canfield from Oregon State or Max Hall from BYU would be great third-round pickups.

The offensive line is the biggest concern, and signing a couple young but experienced tackles would be the best thing for the team. Donald Penn is an unrestricted free agent from Tampa Bay. He is 26 years old and has been starting at left tackle for three years. He would come at a reasonable cost and could provide stability at that position for the next five years at least.

Logan Mankins of the New England Patriots has been rumored to be too pricey to stay in town. He would have to be the biggest coup of the off-season for Washington, and would immediately be locked in as the right guard for years to come. However, if the price is too high, Snyder needs to keep his wallet shut and look elsewhere.

In the draft, the fourth pick could be used to pick up an offensive or defensive tackle. Cornelius Griffin is 33, and while still effective, a player like Gerald McCoy from Oklahoma could come in and be a difference maker at that position.

Another option would be Eric Berry at safety; though it is highly unlikely he’ll be around at the fourth spot. A defensive back extraordinaire in the Ed Reed mold, he is as close to a surefire superstar as there is in this draft.

Clinton Portis needs to be shipped out of town as well. Ladell Betts and Rock Cartwright have been strong backups and have been more effective as tandem when Portis is out than what he does alone when healthy. The problem is the very openly close relationship he has with Snyder, which would make it seem unlikely the owner would let him go.

If he did find a suitor for Portis via trade, it would not only help the offense take a step forward, but it would show to Redskin fans that Snyder is doing whatever it takes to build a respected successful football team.

Teams that could use Portis include the Seahawks, who own the sixth pick and fourteenth pick in the draft. Washington could try to package the fourth pick plus Portis for one of those two selections (preferably the sixth, of course) and a fourth-round selection. That would clear some money, as well as give Washington another choice at young player to help rebuild the franchise with.

If it becomes apparent that Berry would still be available at the fourth pick, all bets should be off on any deals being made to ship that selection, because passing up Berry would be an immortal sin.

There is not as much wrong with the Redskins as it may appear, personnel-wise at least. The biggest problem with the franchise is to adjust its mentality and quite simply just be patient.

You might have to bind Snyder down to his cushy seat in the FedEx Field luxury suite to make that happen, though.