Starting today, I will take a look at each conference and handicap what each team needs to do between now and selection Sunday. First off, the Atlantic Coast Conference.
Duke (23-4, 11-2)
NCAA Tournament chances: lock
The Blue Devils lead the ACC by a game and a half over Maryland, and have all but wrapped up the regular season championship. That being said, Duke is far from flawless, and is not a shoo-in to win the conference tournament.
No team in the country has a trio as talented as Duke’s Kyle Singler, Jon Scheyer and Nolan Smith. All three players bring different but valuable assets to the table and make stopping Duke a living hell for opponents.
The worst news for Mike Krzyzewski’s team is they cannot play their tournament games at home. Each of Duke’s four losses has come on the road, and they have a much tougher time making shots away from Cameron Indoor Stadium.
Best-case scenario: ACC Championship/Final Four
Worst-case scenario: ACC Quarterfinals/NCAA first round
Likely scenario: ACC Championship/Sweet Sixteen
Maryland (19-7, 9-3)
NCAA Tournament chances: very likely
The Terrapins have flown somewhat under the radar this season, but with two weeks left in the regular season, they are in sole possession of second place in the ACC.
Quite frankly, Gary Williams’ team has been one arguable the most dominate team in the conference. In its nine conference wins, Maryland has outscored its opponents by an average of 14 points per game. When they come to play, the Terps leave no doubt.
The biggest concern for Maryland’s NCAA Tournament hopes is their lack of a quality non-conference victory. The best win in that category was over Indiana, which is hardly anything to brag about.
Best-case scenario: ACC Championship/Sweet Sixteen
Worst-case scenario: ACC Quarterfinals/NIT
Likely scenario: ACC Semifinals/NCAA 2nd round
Virginia Tech (21-5, 8-4)
NCAA Tournament chances: somewhat probable
The Hokies could have all but solidified a spot in the NCAA tournament with a win at Duke Sunday night. Instead, Tech sits in third place in the ACC with several difficult games remaining.
Seth Greenberg has done a magnificent job coaching this team. Through 14 games at home, the Hokies have yet to lose once. The Feb. 27 date with Maryland in Blacksburg can be circled as a must-win for the Hokies, if they want to lock up a tournament spot before the ACC tournament begins.
With one of the worst non-conference schedules in America, Tech needs to finish at least 10-6 in the ACC to feel comfortable heading into selection Sunday.
Best-case scenario: ACC Championship/Sweet Sixteen
Worst-case scenario: ACC Quarterfinals/NIT
Likely scenario: ACC Finals/NCAA Second Round
Wake Forest (18-7, 8-5)
NCAA Tournament chances: somewhat probable
Last week, the Deacons were a comfortable lock for the NCAA Tournament, until they lost two games in a row.
Wake has strong non-conference victories, including ones over Gonzaga, Xavier and Richmond. Against the stronger opponents in the ACC, though, the Demon Deacons have struggled.
They have lost at Miami, at Duke, at Georgia Tech, at Virginia Tech, and at North Carolina State. Their only road win in the ACC came against North Carolina on Jan. 20.
Their struggles away from home raise a big red flag as far as their tournament prospects. Then again, not too many teams have found success on the road in this conference.
Best-case scenario: ACC Championship/Sweet Sixteen
Worst-case scenario: ACC Quarterfinals/NIT
Likely scenario: ACC Quarterfinals/NCAA First Round
Clemson (19-7, 7-5)
NCAA Tournament Chances: Bubble
The Tigers sit on the bubble at this point, and their outlook is rough. Three of their last four games are on the road, and they are all against strong teams in Maryland, Florida State and Wake Forest.
After losing at Virginia Tech on Feb. 6, Clemson has won three straight games.
Realistically, the Tigers need to win at least two games in their final four, and a game in the ACC tournament to make the big dance.
Best-case scenario: ACC Semifinals/NCAA second round
Worst-case scenario: ACC first round/NIT
Likely scenario: ACC quarterfinals/NIT
Florida State (19-7, 7-5)
NCAA Tournament chances: Bubble
The Seminoles sit in a similar boat as Clemson for the time being, but with a much easier line of games down the stretch.
The ‘Noles’ final two road games are against North Carolina and Miami, two of the weaker teams in the conference.
Leonard Hamilton’s team is lacking a big-time scorer a la Toney Douglass or Al Thornton. If they had a better backcourt, FSU might be the best team in the conference.
With such great size inside, Florida State could give teams trouble in postseason play.
Best-case scenario: ACC Semifinals/NCAA first round
Worst-case scenario: ACC First round/NIT
Likely scenario: ACC Semifinals/NCAA first round
Georgia Tech (18-9, 6-7)
NCAA Tournament Chances: barely on the bubble
The Yellow Jackets are one of the more inconsistent, underachieving teams in the nation.
They are 2-4 in their last six games, but two of their final three games are at home. Derrick Favors and Gani Lawal are both All-ACC candidates, but there have been many disappointing performances from the Jackets this season.
To make the NCAA Tournament, Paul Hewitt’s squad must win two of its final three regular season games and make it to the ACC semifinals.
Best-case scenario: ACC Semifinals/NCAA first round
Worst-case scenario: ACC First round/NIT
Likely scenario: ACC Quarterfinals/NIT
Virginia (14-11, 5-7)
NCAA Tournament chances: very unlikely
Remember when the Cavaliers were in first place in the ACC? After a surprisingly hot start in conference play, the Wahoos have fallen on hard times down the stretch.
Virginia has lost five straight games, and it’s not crazy to think that the Cavs could go from 5-2 to 5-11 or 6-10 by season’s end.
If the Cavaliers want to make a shocking run to the NCAA tournament, they would need to win out in their final four games and probably make the finals of the conference tournament.
Boston College (13-13, 4-8)
NCAA Tournament chances: only with an automatic bid
Early season losses to Maine and Harvard spelled doom for the Eagles’ season. Other than a win against Clemson at home on Jan. 26, there are no wins to speak about for Boston College.
The Eagles need to win three more games to be eligible for the NIT. That is very possible, with games against Virginia and North Carolina State left in the regular season. That means they would only have to win one ACC Tournament game should they beat the Cavs and Wolfpack.
Best-case scenario: ACC Quarterfinals/NIT
Worst-case scenario: ACC first round/CBI
Likely scenario: ACC first round/CBI
North Carolina (14-13, 3-9)
NCAA Tournament chances: only with an automatic bid
The Tar Heels have fallen so far from the top-10 ranked team from early January that only a tournament championship would earn them an NCAA bid.
The scary thing about the Heels is, even if they enter the conference tournament as the 11th seed, they are talented enough to make a miraculous run.
Is that likely? Yeah, and Matt Collette is a humble gentleman. Still, Carolina could salvage a forgettable season with at least a couple good wins late in the year.
Best-case scenario: ACC Semifinals/NCAA First Round
Worst-case scenario: ACC first round/CBI
Likely scenario: ACC first round/CBI
North Carolina State (15-13, 3-10)
NCAA Tournament Chances: only with an automatic bid
Over the course of the season, the Wolfpack have been the worst team in the ACC, but they have had a couple bright moments.
The 88-74 win over Duke gave State fans hope, but since that game, the Pack have lost seven of eight games. On Saturday they may have spoiled Wake Forest’s season with a 68-54 win at home.
Even with the select impressive victories, the Wolfpack have little hope to make it to the second day of the ACC Tournament still alive.
Best-case scenario: ACC quarterfinals/CBI
Worst-case scenario: ACC first round/CBI
Likely scenario: ACC first round/CBI
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